Friday, 20 November 2009

UFC 106: ORTIZ VS. GRIFFIN 2 PREDICTIONS!!!


Luiz 'Banha' Cane
Antonio Rogerio 'Minotoro' Nogueira

Luiz Cane will be looking to extend his 3 fight winning streak on Saturday when he takes on the debuting Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Luiz made his professional MMA debut in his homeland of Brazil against Marcelo Alfaia for the Campeonato Brasileiro de Vale-Tudo promotion, the fight ended in a first round no contest. After his disappointing debut, Cane went on to amass a record of 7-0-1 before he was signed by the UFC to fight James Irvin on December 29th 2007 at UFC 79. The fight against Irvin didn’t last long as Cane was disqualified 1 minute 51 seconds into the bout for throwing an illegal knee at Irvin while he was still in downed position. After suffering his first loss, Luiz needed to get back on track at UFC 85, where his opponent was UFC veteran Jason Lambert, Cane’s intentions to the end the fight early were apparent from the start & he ended up getting the TKO mid-way through the first round to earn his first UFC victory. Looking to keep his momentum going Cane was set to face Sokoudjou at UFC 88 in a fight where he was largely considered to be the underdog, however Cane ended up surprising a lot of people as he ended the fight via TKO due to strikes with 45 seconds remaining in the second round. In his most recent fight Cane defeated Steve Cantwell via unanimous decision.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira made his MMA debut in 2001 with a TKO victory over Shamoji Fujii. He went 3-0 in his career before suffering his first loss against Vladimir Matyushenko via decision. After this loss Nogueira won his next 8 fights, defeating the likes of Guy Mezger, Kazushi Sakuraba, Alistair Overeem & Dan Henderson. However his impressive winning streak came to end at Pride Critical Countdown 2005 when he lost a unanimous decision to Mauricio Shogun Rua. Nogueira suffered the 3rd loss of his career at Pride 33 when Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou shocked the world by KO’ing Nogueira in just 24 seconds. Since this loss Nogueira has put his career back on track with 5 wins in his last 5 fights including a win over Matyushenko, avenging the earlier loss from his record.

This will be Lil Nog’s first appearance in the UFC and he will not be getting an easy fight, Luiz Cane has only 1 loss on his record (due to a DQ) and has never been KO’d so this should be a good test to see just where Nogueira stands in the UFC’s light heavyweight division. Like his brother, Nogueira has good boxing, a solid chin & excellent submissions so he should be the more well rounded fighter in this bout. Luiz Cane on the other hand prefers the stand-up game with 8 of his 10 wins coming by KO. I expect the early part of this fight to be a striking match as each fighter looks to test the others stand-up, by the end of the round though I expect Nogueira to go for the takedown on Cane. If Nogueira gets this fight to the ground then I think his submissions will be too much for Cane & he’ll come away with the victory. The only way I can see Cane winning this fight is if Nogueira gets careless and gets tagged by one of Cane’s strikes otherwise I feel Nogueira overall game will be too much for Luiz and he will come away with a win in his debut.

My Prediction: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via decision.


Amir Sadollah
Phil 'New York Bad Ass' Baroni

Amir Sadollah will be looking to rebound from the disappointment of his last fight as he takes on the returning Phil Baroni in a welterweight bout. Amir Sadollah was one of the 52 successful candidates out of 250 applicants at the October, 2007, International Fight League draft in Chicago. He impressed Dana White and producers enough to earn a trip to Las Vegas, Nevada to compete on The Ultimate Fighter. Sadollah came on to the show with no professional record in MMA. Sadollah showed that he was tough enough to be on the show after defeating Steve Byrnes by armlock. Amir got his spot in the house because of the win and became the second pick for Team Forrest. In the seventh episode, Amir went up against skilled wrestler Gerald Harris and won the fight by TKO in the second round. Amir went on to fight "The Immortal" Matt Brown in the quarterfinals & defeated Brown by Triangle Choke in Round 2. Amir then moved onto the semi-finals where he was to face C.B. Dollaway.

In the third round, Sadollah put Dollaway in an armbar and Dollaway immediately tapped. This meant that Amir would fight in the finale for a shot at becoming the next Ultimate Fighter. Sadollah's original opponent for the finale was Jesse Taylor. However, Taylor was removed from the finale due to improper behavior in the days after the show finished taping. C.B. Dollaway defeated Tim Credeur in a match to decide who would replace Taylor in the finale and fight Amir. On the season finale of TUF 7, Amir earned a victory over C.B. Dollaway with another armbar in the first round, securing his title of The Ultimate Fighter and providing him with a six-figure UFC contract. In his post-Ultimate Fighter Debut at UFC 101 Sadollah lost via TKO to Johnny Hendricks in a controversial stoppage just 29 seconds into the fight.

Phil Baroni began his MMA career in 2000 & quickly made a name for himself in the UFC with several impressive knockout victories. His signature fight was a decisive knockout victory over former UFC champion Dave Menne. After this fight Baroni then rematched Matt Lindland to whom he had previously lost to by judges decision. In their rematch, Baroni suffered a second loss to Lindland by another judge’s decision. He was then matched up against Evan Tanner at UFC 45. Baroni dominated the beginning of the match against Tanner, but when the fight was stopped to check a cut on Tanner, Tanner regained his composure and the momentum turned, leading to the referee stopping the fight due to Baroni taking several undefended strikes on the ground. This decision was controversial as the referee Larry Landless had asked Baroni if he wanted to quit which he did not. Landless still stopped the bout, and was struck by a furious Baroni who wished to continue.

Baroni was subsequently suspended for 4 months for striking the official. Upon his return Baroni got a rematch with Tanner at UFC 48 but went on to lose via decision. Despite losing 3 fights in a row, the UFC matched Baroni against the relatively unknown Pete Sell. Baroni dominated early on with numerous takedowns and more effective striking, however, Sell caught him in a guillotine choke and Baroni appeared to lose consciousness, but then tapped out for the only time in his career thereby ending the fight. After this loss, Baroni was cut from the UFC and ended up fighting in Japan for Pride. Baroni had a relatively successful stint in Pride compiling a 4-2 record. Since leaving Pride Baroni has gone 3-4 in his last 7 fights with his latest fight resulting in a loss to Joe Riggs at Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields.

Both of these fighters will have something to prove in this bout so this has the potential to be one of the fights of the night. Baroni is always dangerous early on in his fights especially with the KO power he possesses, however he does have a tendency to gas as the fight goes on. If Amir is to be successful in this fight then he will need to fight smart early on and avoid the striking exchanges in the first round, if he can somehow get the takedown on Baroni then he should be in a very good position to end the fight with his ground skills. Baroni on the other hand will need to finish Amir early; if he can overwhelm him with strikes in the opening minutes then we could see a similar result to the Hendricks fight. Phil has excellent hand speed to go with his power and if he backs Amir up against the cage he should be able to do some serious damage. Despite this ability to end the fight with one punch I still think Baroni will be in for a tough night, Amir should have learnt a lot from his last fight & as long as he sticks to a game plan and doesn’t get involved in any unnecessary striking exchanges then he should be able to take Phil out in the later rounds.

My Prediction: Amir Sadollah via decision.


Josh 'Kos'Koscheck
Anthony 'Rumble' Johnson

Anthony Johnson will be making a quick return to the octagon as he takes on Josh Koscheck less than a month after his last fight. Josh Koscheck began his professional mixed martial arts career in 2004, compiling victories over Cruz Chacon and Luke Cummo. In 2005, Koscheck appeared on The Ultimate Fighter & was selected to compete in the middleweight division, he advanced to the semi-finals by defeating Chris Leben however, Koscheck lost the semi’s by split-decision to Diego Sanchez. Although he didn't proceed to the final round, Koscheck was featured on the undercard of the live season finale on Spike TV, where he made his official UFC debut by defeating Christopher Sanford by knockout. Koscheck went on to defeat Pete Spratt in his next fight before losing to Drew Fickett at Ultimate Fight Night 2.

Koscheck rebounded from this loss by winning his next 5 fights to set up a fight against Georges St-Pierre at UFC 74. St-Pierre ended Josh’s win streak when he scored a unanimous decision victory. Josh made his return at UFC 82, defeating Dustin Hazelett by TKO due to strikes at in the 2nd round. He won his next fight, against Chris Lytle at UFC 86 by unanimous decision. Koscheck then agreed to step in and fight Thiago Alves at UFC 90 on just 2 weeks notice, he lost the fight via unanimous decision. Alves landed powerful leg kicks and managed to drop Koscheck more than once during the fight before getting the decision. On December 10, 2008, Koscheck fought Yoshiyuki Yoshida in the main event at UFC: Fight for the Troops and won by KO in the first round by landing two devastating straight right punches to Yoshida's head. After this fight Koscheck fought debuting Paulo Thiago in at UFC 95; Koscheck was defeated by the debuting Brazilian via TKO. In his most recent fight Koscheck defeated Frank Trigg via TKO in the very first round.

Anthony Johnson made his MMA debut in 2006, earning a 1st round KO victory over Jonathan Romero. He put together a 3 fight win streak before getting signed by the UFC and had an extremely impressive debut at UFC Fight Night 10, knocking out Chad Reiner just thirteen seconds into the first round. He had taken the fight on less than a weeks notice replacing an injured Steve Bruno. In subsequent UFC bouts Johnson was choked out by Rich Clementi but came back with an impressive KO victory over Tommy Speer.

Anthony’s next fight was against Kevin Burns on July 19, 2008 and ended in controversial fashion by TKO loss, in the third round. Johnson could not continue due to receiving a severe poke to the eye. Many believe that Johnson should have won the fight via disqualification. Johnson fought Kevin Burns again in a rematch on The Ultimate Fighter 8 finale. This time the outcome was different with Johnson winning the match by knocking Burns out via headkick. The knockout earned Johnson Knockout of The Night honors. Johnson defeated Luigi Fioravanti at UFC Fight Night 17 on February 7, by TKO via strikes at 4:39 of the first round. Even after his impressive stoppage of Fioravanti, Johnson apologized for his performance, calling himself "sloppy" and saying that although he was unhappy with the fight that night and had a lot of improving to do, he was still young and would only get better. Johnson fought Japanese Judoka Yoshiyuki Yoshida at UFC 104 where he won at 0:41 of the first round by KO. The fight became a catchweight bout of 176 when Johnson missed weight by six pounds. Despite his knockout of Yoshida, Johnson was not eligible for the Knockout of the Night bonus due to coming in overweight.

This will be Anthony Johnson’s biggest test to date in the UFC and a big win over Koscheck will put him right into title contention. Johnson is a huge welterweight with dangerous striking and an excellent wrestling base so Koscheck will have his hands full in this fight. Koscheck’s strengths are similar to Johnson’s in that he is also an outstanding wrestler with powerful strikes, however I’d give a slight edge to Johnson in the striking and Koscheck in the wrestling. Even though this will probably end up as more of a kick-boxing bout I think it would be better for Koscheck to attempt to get this fight to the ground. Josh has the power to hurt Johnson but with the reach & size advantage that Johnson will have I think engaging him in the stand-up would be a mistake. If Josh can put Johnson on his back then he could end up getting the decision. Look for Johnson to employ a similar strategy to most of his fights, he’ll look to stop the takedown attempts while mixing up his punches & kicks. If he can land a clean shot then it could be lights out for Koscheck and his dreams of a re-match for the title.

My Prediction: Anthony Johnson via KO.


Tito 'The Huntington Beach Bad Boy' Ortiz
Forrest Griffin

In the main event of the evening Tito Ortiz will be returning to the Octagon for the first time since May 2008 when he takes on Forrest Griffin. Griffin made his debut in MMA back in 2001 and compiled a 9-2 record before he became well-known by taking part in the first-season of The Ultimate Fighter. At the time, he was ready to give up mixed martial arts and rejoin the Athens Police Department. On the show, he reached the finals where he defeated Stephan Bonnar by unanimous decision. The fight was credited by Dana White as the "most important fight in UFC history" and the fight that brought the UFC into the mainstream.

After the show Forrest won his next 2 fights in the UFC before taking on Tito Ortiz at UFC 59, in which he lost a controversial split decision. In his comeback bout Griffin fought Stephan Bonnar in a rematch from their earlier epic fight. Griffin won by unanimous decision, sweeping all three rounds. Shortly after this fight Griffin was then defeated by Ultimate Fighter 2 semifinalist Keith Jardine at UFC 66 by way of TKO at 4:41 of the first round. It was Griffin’s first TKO loss in the UFC and after being visibly upset with his performance he vowed to comeback stronger. At UFC 76, Griffin fought against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. At the time, Shogun was ranked the #1 light heavyweight fighter in the world by several MMA publications. Griffin won by rear naked choke at 4:45 of round three after dominating Shogun for the majority of the fight. This win thrust Forrest into the top of the division and on July 5, 2008, Griffin fought the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. Viewed as a heavy underdog by many going into the fight, Griffin faced Jackson in a hard fought battle that was given "Fight of the Night" honors by UFC president Dana White. Griffin won a unanimous decision victory and became the new undisputed UFC Light Heavyweight Champion. Griffin's first title defense came at UFC 92 against challenger Rashad Evans. After Griffin controlled most of the first two rounds with effective striking, Evans defeated Griffin by TKO in the third round with ground and pound. At UFC 101 Griffin fought Anderson Silva. During the bout, Griffin was knocked down three times in the first round by Silva. During the third knockdown, Griffin charged Silva with a flurry of punches, each of which were avoided by sways from Silva, who then countered with a pawing right jab to his jaw that sent him to the canvas, prompting the referee to stop the fight.

Tito Ortiz's mixed martial arts debut was at UFC 13 in 1997. Still in college, Ortiz competed as an amateur for no prize money or contracts. He beat Wes Albritton in by referee stoppage at 0:31 of the very first round. He was selected to face Guy Mezger in the Lightweight final after Enson Inoue could not continue due to injury. Ortiz lost the fight at 2:00 in the first round by submission. After returning with a TKO victory over Jeremy Screetonat, and a doctors stoppage due to cut against Jerry Bohlander at UFC 18, Tito avenged his loss to Mezger at UFC 19 by TKO in round 1. In 1999 Ortiz fought Frank Shamrock for the UFC middleweight (199 lb) title at UFC 22, losing via submission due to strikes. Following the victory, Shamrock retired and vacated the championship. The middleweight division was then renamed the light heavyweight (205 lb) division and Ortiz was chosen, along with Wanderlei Silva, as a top contender. Ortiz defeated Silva for the vacant light heavyweight title at UFC 25 via unanimous decision. He went on to defend the belt a record five times in the following three years, defeating Yuki Kondo, Evan Tanner, Elvis Sinosic, Vladimir Matyushenko and Ken Shamrock.

At UFC 44, after a near year-long layoff from the sport, Ortiz fought the new interim light heavyweight champion Randy Couture for the interim title at UFC 43 in September 2003. Couture defeated Ortiz via unanimous decision. The loss ended Ortiz's near three and a half year title reign, which is still the longest light heavyweight championship reign since the title's inception in 1997. Following his loss to Couture, Ortiz faced Chuck Liddell at UFC 47, losing by second round knockout. After six months off, Ortiz returned and took a unanimous decision victory over Patrick Côté at UFC 50, and a split decision over Vitor Belfort at UFC 51. With the Belfort fight being the last fight on his contract Tito took some time away from fighting before returning at UFC 59 on April 15, 2006 against previous The Ultimate Fighter 1 winner Forrest Griffin. Ortiz won via split decision. His next fight was against Ken Shamrock at UFC 61 on July 8, 2006, a match which was to conclude a main storyline in The Ultimate Fighter 3. Ortiz won in the first round by TKO due to a stoppage by referee Herb Dean due to strikes. Shamrock protested that the stoppage was early. On August 25, 2006, at the UFC 62 weigh-ins, Dana White announced a rematch between Ortiz and Shamrock for on Spike TV, as the main event of Ortiz vs. Shamrock 3: The Final Chapter. Ortiz beat Shamrock for the third time in this fight, which was stopped in the first round due to strikes. Ortiz's rematch with Chuck Liddell (for the UFC Light Heavyweight championship) at UFC 66 ended in defeat via referee stoppage in the third round. Tito then fought against undefeated The Ultimate Fighter 2 winner Rashad Evans on July 7, 2007 at UFC 73. The fight ended in a draw after Ortiz was penalized for grabbing the fence. Ortiz' last fight on his contract with the UFC was a unanimous decision loss to undefeated Lyoto Machida at UFC 84. With all three judges scoring the fight 30-27 to Machida. Ortiz came close to submitting Machida in the third round with a triangle choke before transitioning to an armbar. However, Machida managed to escape and survived the round, winning a unanimous judge's decision.

Sporting a combined record of 0-4-1 in their last 5 fights this really is a must win fight for both fighters. Tito has finally got his nagging back injury sorted out and has claimed that he will be back to his old self for this fight whereas Forrest will need to make a statement after getting embarrassed by Anderson Silva in his last fight. Tito should already know the blueprint he will need to follow in order to get the win over Forrest, if he sticks to the same game plan he used in the first round of their first fight then he should be able to get a unanimous decision. The problem he had at UFC 54 was mainly to do with his conditioning letting him down and this is normally one of his strongest assets. If Tito can push the pace in this fight & keep up the pressure then Forrest could be in for a long night. Tito has been working on his stand-up with Freddie Roach in preparation for this fight but I suspect this will just be to set up his takedowns, we all know his biggest strength is taking his opponents down and using his elbows to ground and pound them & cause some serious damage. Forrest’s tactics in this fight should be to keep the distance and use his leg kicks, if he can use a similar strategy to the one he used against Rampage then he may just pull off another surprise victory. One thing that won’t be clear until fight night is just how the Silva KO has affected Forrest and just how much the long lay-off has had on Tito. I think the fact that Griffin got stopped in the 1st round could really shake his confidence and if Tito is able to rock him early then we could see another loss for the original TUF winner.

Prediction: Tito Ortiz via TKO.