Friday, 18 September 2009

UFC 103: FRANKLIN vs BELFORT PREDICTIONS

Tyson Griffin
Hermes 'The Unreal' Franca

In the first televised fight of the night Lightweights Tyson Griffin & Hermes Franca will collide as they look to get a step closer to BJ Penn and his lightweight belt. Tyson Griffin began his professional career in 2004 in the Gladitor Challenge promotion. In his third bout, he dropped to featherweight to earn a TKO victory over future WEC featherweight champion Urijah Faber, which stood as Faber's only defeat for over three years. Griffin went on to win all of his first six fights before facing Duane Ludwig at Strikeforce: Revenge. He won the bout by TKO in the first round, attracting the attention of major promotions. After considering offers from Pride Fighting Championship and the UFC, Griffin signed with the UFC so that he could continue to fight stateside.

Griffin made his UFC debut at UFC 63 against David Lee. He won the bout by rear naked choke in the first round, earning a Submission of the Night honors in the process. He began 2007 with a fight against Frank Edgar at UFC 67. The back-and-forth bout ended with Edgar trapped in a tight leglock, but judges unanimously scored the bout in his favor, handing Griffin his first professional loss. He rebounded with two decision victories over Clay Guida and Thiago Tavares at UFC 72 and UFC 76, respectively. All three of his bouts in 2007 earned Fight of the Night honors and were judged in the top 10 best of year. In 2008, Griffin won a unanimous decision victory over Gleison Tibau at UFC 81 and Marcus Aurelio at UFC 86. His next opponent was Sean Sherk at UFC 90. In another three-round war, Griffin lost by unanimous decision, but won his fourth career Fight of the Night. Griffin beat Rafael dos Anjos at UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann for his fifth career Fight of the Night in a unanimous but very close decision, punctuated by close submission attempts by dos Anjos and effective striking by Griffin.

Hermes Franca made his MMA debut in 2001 against Mike Brown, picking up a submission victory over the future featherweight champion. Franca followed his successful debut with another 5 wins to take his record to 6-0 before making his UFC debut at UFC 42, defeating Richard Crunkilton by unanimous decision. He went on to win his next UFC fight against Caol Uno at UFC 44 before losing a majority decision to Josh Thomson at UFC 46. His next outing in the UFC, against Yves Edwards, was unsuccessful, losing the fight by split decision. Edwards would once again beat Franca by split decision in their encounter at Euphoria: USA vs. World in 2005, starting what would be a very bad year, marked with three straight losses, for the Brazilian fighter.

However, 2006 would prove to be a much better year for Franca. In March, he toppled WEC champion Gabe Ruediger to capture the WEC Lightweight championship, and then knocked out Team Quest fighter Ryan Schultz to take the AFC Lightweight championship in April. Franca would continue his winning streak against the likes of Toby Imada and Brandon Olsen before signing a contract to fight Roger Huerta at UFC 61 in July. Although Huerta pulled out due to injury, Franca still reigned successful in his UFC return, stopping Joe Jordan by triangle choke submission in the third round. Despite accepting yet another fight on short notice, Franca was once again victorious, catching Jamie Varner in an armbar submission in the third round. This win gave Franca the WEC Lightweight title. Franca successfully defended his WEC Lightweight championship against Nate Diaz, at WEC 24 on October 12, extending Franca's win streak in 2006 to seven consecutive victories.

In his next bout Franca defeated Spencer Fisher at UFC Fight Night 8 by TKO in the second round. Franca then lost his UFC title fight at UFC 73 to Sean Sherk by unanimous decision. On July 19, 2007 the California State Athletic Commission announced Franca had tested positive for the banned steroid Drostanolone in a post-fight drug test following his championship fight. He had been suspended from competing in California until July 5, 2008 and had been fined $2,500. Franca lost his first fight back in the UFC to Frankie Edgar via unanimous decision. In his most recent fight he defeated Marcus Aurelio via unanimous decision at UFC 90.

Both of these guys will need to make a big impression in this fight if they want to get back into title contention. With numerous fight of the night awards between them in recent fights this bout could very well steal the show. Hermes Franca always comes out looking to swing for the fences & I doubt that he’ll change that for this fight, he possesses some nasty KO power and if he connects then Tyson will definitely feel it. Even though Franca has power in his strikes, they are not that technical so if this fight turns into a stand-up battle then I wouldn’t be surprised if Griffin out-points the Brazilian. Tyson’s best attribute is his wrestling and he may look to use this to keep Franca from trying to get the fight to the ground, if Hermes is losing the striking exchanges then he tends to go for takedowns. This is somewhere Tyson should avoid going in this fight as Franca has excellent BJJ & an extremely active guard, as he looks for submissions constantly. If Tyson can stay away from Franca’s power then he should be able to pull off a decision victory in this fight and start to once again climb the lightweight rankings.

My Prediction: Tyson Griffin via decision.


Josh 'Kos' Koscheck
Frank 'Twinkle Toes' Trigg

Frank Trigg returns to the UFC after a 4 year absence on Saturday night when he takes on top welterweight Josh Koscheck. Frank Trigg made his professional MMA debut in 1997 against Ali Elias, earning a KO victory in the 1st round. Trigg went on a 7-0 win streak before suffering the first loss of his career to Hayato Sakurai via TKO. Trigg joined the World Fighting Alliance from 2001-2002, where he held the WFA welterweight title. Trigg was undefeated in WFA.

After several successful years with the WFA, in 2003, Trigg joined the UFC. Trigg earned an immediate title shot against champion Matt Hughes at UFC 45. After a tactical grappling match-up early on, Trigg fell victim to a rear naked choke in the first round. Trigg rebounded quickly, defeating Dennis Hallman and Renato Verissimo in UFC 48 and 50 to earn another shot at Hughes' Welterweight Championship. In their second fight at UFC 52, Hughes submitted Trigg by rear naked choke for the second time in a row in what is considered one of the great comebacks in UFC history. Trigg returned at UFC 54 to take on future welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre where he once again lost by a rear naked choke in the opening round. This loss would be Trigg's final appearance in the UFC until he recently signed a contract to fight Koscheck.

Trigg participated in Rumble on the Rock's 2006 welterweight tournament, winning his first round fight against Ronald Jhun. He was upset in the second round by Carlos Condit. After this tournament Trigg won the Icon Sport Middleweight title, TKO’ing Jason "Mayhem" Miller. His next fight was at Pride 33, against Middleweight Grand Prix champion Kazuo Misaki. Trigg out wrestled Misaki and maintained control on the ground, winning by a 30-27 unanimous decision. A month later, Trigg unsuccessfully defended his Icon Sport middleweight title against Robbie Lawler, losing in the fourth round via KO. Since this loss to Lawler Trigg has put together a 4 fight win streak to earn himself another shot in the UFC.

Josh Koscheck began his professional mixed martial arts career in 2004, compiling victories over Cruz Chacon and Luke Cummo. In 2005, Koscheck appeared on The Ultimate Fighter & was selected to compete in the middleweight division, he advanced to the semi-finals by defeating Chris Leben however, Koscheck lost the semi’s by split-decision to Diego Sanchez. Although he didn't proceed to the final round, Koscheck was featured on the undercard of the live season finale on Spike TV, where he made his official UFC debut by defeating Christopher Sanford by knockout. Koscheck went on to defeat Pete Spratt in his next fight before losing to Drew Fickett at Ultimate Fight Night 2.

Koscheck rebounded from this loss by winning his next 5 fights to set up a fight against Georges St-Pierre at UFC 74. St-Pierre ended Josh’s win streak when he scored a unanimous decision victory. Josh made his return at UFC 82, defeating Dustin Hazelett by TKO due to strikes at in the 2nd round. He won his next fight, against Chris Lytle at UFC 86 by unanimous decision. Koscheck then agreed to step in and fight Thiago Alves at UFC 90 on just 2 weeks notice, he lost the fight via unanimous decision. Alves landed powerful leg kicks and managed to drop Koscheck more than once during the fight before getting the decision. On December 10, 2008, Koscheck fought Yoshiyuki Yoshida in the main event at UFC: Fight for the Troops and won by KO in the first round by landing two devastating straight right punches to Yoshida's head. In his latest fight Koscheck fought debuting Paulo Thiago in at UFC 95; Koscheck was defeated by the debuting Brazilian via TKO.

Frank Trigg has put together a pretty impressive record since leaving the UFC going 7-2 in his last 9 fights but will he be able to keep this record up when he steps up a level in competition against Josh Koscheck? Koscheck is coming back from a brutal KO loss in this fight after losing to unknown Paulo Thiago at UFC 95 in a fight that he was expected to win pretty easily. Even though Koscheck has improved his stand-up considerably since making his debut in the UFC he still has habit of leaving his chin exposed and this is something Trigg may look to exploit. Both of these fighters are primarily known for their wrestling ability however I’d have to give a slight edge to Koscheck’s wrestling in this fight. Trigg’s best opportunity to win this fight will be to try & exchange strikes with Koscheck and try to counter Josh’s power punches. I can’t really see Trigg keeping Koscheck on the ground for too long if he does get the takedown as Josh is too explosive. Koscheck will need to work on keeping his hands up & chin down in this fight, if he has a chance to land that big right hand of his then I can see him KO’ing Trigg. At the end of the night I think Koscheck will be just a little bit better than Trigg in the stand-up and on the ground and he will come away with the victory.

My Prediction: Josh Koscheck via KO.


Martin 'The Hitman' Kampmann
Paul 'Semtex' Daley

Paul Daley makes his debut in the UFC after stepping up on short notice to take on Martin Kampmann. Kampmann made his MMA debut in 2003 against Gert Mannaerts, winning via TKO. Martin improved his record to 4-0 before suffering his first loss due to a cut against Andrei Semenov. Kampmann won his next 5 fights before he made his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 6 as a late replacement for Kalib Starnes. In this fight, Kampmann defeated opponent Crafton Wallace by first-round submission. His next victory came by way of a unanimous judges' decision over Thales Leites in The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale on November 11, 2006, and at UFC 68, he defeated Drew McFedries by arm-triangle choke in the first round.

His next UFC fight was scheduled for UFC 72 against Rich "Ace" Franklin, but he was forced to withdraw due to a knee injury. Kampmann returned from his injury at UFC 85, where he defeated Jorge Rivera by Guillotine Choke at 2:44 in the first round. Kampmann's first fifteen fights were at 185lb, however after losing to Nate Marquardt at UFC 88, Kampmann announced that he would drop down to the welterweight division (170lbs). He made his Welterweight debut at UFC 93 defeating Alexandre Barros by second round TKO. Kampmann defeated the last WEC welterweight champion Carlos Condit in a closely contested split decision victory in the main event at UFC Fight Night 18.

Paul Daley successfully made his debut in MMA in June 2003 against John Connelly, winning via TKO. Daley’s record was pretty inconsistent after this win, as he would go on spurts of winning streaks followed by losses. After fighting in various countries and building a solid 16-6-2 record, Paul fought Mark Weir at Cage Rage 23 for the Welterweight title and he earned the first major title of his career to date when he TKO’d Weir in the 2nd round. Daley won his next two fights in the 1st round before taking on Jake Shields at EliteXC: Heat. This fight was a big step up in competition for Daley and even though he had a significant advantage in the stand-up, when the fight hit the ground Shields was able to pull off the submission. Daley has gone 3-1 since his loss to Shields with his latest victory coming in April 2009 against Brazilian Junior Barata via TKO due to strikes.

This fight was initially supposed to be a title eliminator between Martin Kampmann & Mike Swick, however with Swick suffering an injury Paul Daley has stepped up on short notice and will be making his UFC debut. Even though this is Daley’s first appearance in the UFC, Kampmann shouldn’t take him lightly, he has competed all over the world and has 21 wins with 16 coming by way of KO. As you can see Paul tends to favour the striking game over the ground game with only 1 submission victory in his career thus far. Kampmann is also an accomplished fighter, however I think Daley will be the more dangerous in the striking exchanges due to the KO power he has. This will be a tricky fight for Kampmann and he will not want to risk losing a potential title shot, therefore, I have a feeling he’ll attempt to take Daley down to the ground which is an area that some Paul’s opponents have exposed as a weakness with 5 of his 8 losses coming by way of submission. If Martin gets Paul to the ground then he should be able to control the Brit and possibly catch a submission early on. Daley has already stated his intentions for this fight, he will be looking to come out and KO Kampmann from the first bell and as long as he isn’t too reckless early on and doesn’t leave himself open for a takedown then he has an excellent chance of pulling off the upset in this bout.

My Prediction: Paul Daley via KO.


Mirko Cro Cop
Junior 'Cigano' Dos Santos

Junior Dos Santos will look to continue making waves in the UFC heavyweight division when he takes on Mirko Cro Cop in the co-main event of the evening. Junior Dos Santos made his professional MMA debut in 2006 against Jailson Silva Santos, Junior stopped his opponent in the very first round via TKO. His next 4 fights all took place in Brazil as he compiled a record of 5-0, however this streak came to an end when Joaquim Ferreira submitted Dos Santos to hand him his first ever defeat. Dos Santos went on to win his next fight via TKO.

Junior dos Santos was for the most part an unknown MMA fighter until his UFC debut at UFC 90: Silva vs. Côté, when he defeated a Top 5 Heavyweight contender Fabricio Werdum with a first round KO from a devastating uppercut. Dos Santos currently fights under the tutelage of the former interim UFC Heavyweight Champion Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira and UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva. He last fought against Stefan Struve at UFC 95, defeating him by TKO in the first round.

Mirko Filipović (better known as Mirko Cro Cop), is a Croatian law enforcement officer turned kickboxer and mixed martial artist. His nickname, short for "Croatian Cop", comes from his membership in Croatia's most elite Anti-Terrorist Unit ATJ Lučko.

Cro Cop started his professional career in 1996 as a kickboxer accumulating an amateur record of 40-5 (31 KO's). In 1996, at the age of 21, Cro Cop entered the K-1 World Grand Prix elimination tournament. After defeating the previous year's finalist, Jérôme Le Banner, he was stopped in the next round by Ernesto Hoost. Cro Cop continued building a successful K-1 career with wins over some top ranked opponents including Peter Aerts, Mark Hunt and Remy Bonjasky. He was also the first fighter to beat then-undefeated giant, Bob Sapp in just 86 seconds, breaking Sapp's orbital bone with a left punch. In 2001, Mirko began his switch to fighting in PRIDE, citing personal challenge, as well as dissatisfaction with K-1 salaries. A year later, he also left his job at the anti-terrorist unit in order to focus fully on his martial arts career. In just 2 years Cro Cop compiled an impressive 7-0-2 record in PRIDE taking on some impressive opposition in the form of Wanderlei Silva, Heath Herring & Igor Vovchanchyn. His performances in these fights earned him a shot at then interim heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Cro Cop’s stand-up was effective in the first round, controlling the fight from his feet. However, Nogueira prevailed in the second round after a successful takedown, led to an armbar forcing the tap. After an upset to Kevin Randleman, which he later avenged, Cro Cop put together another 7 fight win streak to set-up one of the most anticipated Heavyweight fights in MMA history against Fedor Emelianenko for the heavyweight title at Pride Final Conflict 2005.

After three rounds, Fedor won by unanimous decision and retained his title. Mirko later stated on Croatian national television that he came exhausted to the match, mostly because he was not used to the time difference in Japan and he had sleeping problems. He also said many times after the match that he fought too defensively and cautiously. The champion, likewise, was not in his top form. According to Fedor he "could not take full advantage of right hand during the striking exchanges and had to try to close the distance," due to a previous hand injury. After this fight Cro Cop was 1-1 before competing in Pride's 2006 Open-Weight Grand Prix, he went on to win the tournament in impressive fashion KO’ing Wanderlei Silva in the semi-finals with his trademark left high kick before defeating Josh Barnett in the final to become the Open-Weight Grand Prix champion. After the Grand Prix, Cro Cop signed a 2 year 6 fight deal with the UFC. After a lot of hype, Mirko failed to deliver in his first 3 UFC fights winning his debut before losing his next 2 bouts to Gabriel Gonzaga & Cheick Kongo. It was at this time that the UFC agreed to let Cro Cop fight in Japan where he went 2-0-1 before finally bringing him back to face Mostapha Al Turk in a fight that he won via TKO due to strikes in the 1s round.

This fight is crucial for Cro Cop, if he ever wants to win the UFC Heavyweight title he needs to win this fight and make a statement in doing so. In the past Cro Cop has struggled against some of the bigger opponents he has gone up against in the UFC as they tend to bully him around the octagon & don’t give him a chance to set up his famous High Kick’s. Dos Santos has looked extremely impressive in his short career to date, already holding a win over a top ranked heavyweight in Fabricio Werdum, he’s also never had a fight go past the first round. Dos Santos has some heavy hands and if Cro Cop isn’t at the top of his game then this fight has all the makings of an upset. Thus far in his UFC fights Cro Cop hasn’t really shown the same form that made him one of the most feared strikers in the world in Pride. He barely throws his kicks anymore and has shown that when he’s pressured he can be overwhelmed. I’d love to see the old Mirko show up for this fight but I just can’t see it and I think Dos Santos will once again shock everyone with another KO victory.

My Prediction: Junior Dos Santos via KO.


Rich 'Ace' Franklin
Vitor 'Phenom' Belfort

In the main event of the evening Vitor Belfort makes his long awaited return to the UFC to take on former middleweight champion Rich Franklin in a 195lbs catch weight bout. Rich "Ace" Franklin made his MMA debut in March 2000 and amassed a record of 17 wins and 1 loss before fighting for the UFC title. His sole loss was against the undefeated Lyoto Machida by TKO in the second round. In the run up to the title match, he defeated such well-respected fighters as Evan Tanner, Jorge Rivera, Edwin Dewees, Ken Shamrock, Jason MacDonald, and David Loiseau. Before his fight with Shamrock, Franklin signed an 8-fight contract with the UFC and in 2005, he defeated Evan Tanner for the second time to win the UFC Middleweight Championship.

In his first title defence at UFC 56, Franklin KO’d Nate Quarry, a competitor from season 1 of The Ultimate Fighter in the 1st round. He then defeated David Loiseau in a unanimous five round decision to retain his title once again at UFC 58. Franklin broke his left hand early on in the second round of this fight, which led to him having surgery and put him out of action for seven months. On his return Franklin lost his title to Anderson Silva in the main event of UFC 64. The fight was stopped at 2:49 of the first round after Franklin received a knee to the face which dropped him. On October 19, 2006 Franklin underwent surgery due to the nasal fracture he received in his fight against Silva. Rich went on to win his next two fights to set up a re-match with Silva at UFC 77, in what turned out to be an extended version of their first fight Silva defeated Franklin by TKO (Strikes) in the second round. Franklin defeated Travis Lutter in his next fight before moving up to the light heavyweight division defeating Matt Hamill by TKO with a kick to the liver at UFC 88. After this fight, he fought former PRIDE 183 lbs and 205 lbs champion Dan Henderson at UFC 93 on January 17, 2009 in Dublin, Ireland. He lost the fight in a controversial split decision in a very evenly contested bout. His latest bout took place at UFC 99, where he defeated Wanderlei Silva via unanimous decision.

Vitor Belfort made his MMA debut at the age of 19, in his first sanctioned fight, Belfort KO’d Jon Hess in just 12 seconds. Soon after, he moved on to compete in the UFC, where he was given the nickname The Phenom. He beat two fighters in his debut event in the UFC, winning the UFC 12 Heavyweight Tournament. At age 19, Belfort became the youngest fighter to ever score a victory inside the octagon. Belfort's next match saw him score a TKO against the UFC 6 runner-up Tank Abbott in a non-tournament fight, knocking Abbott down and finishing him with a ground and pound attack. In 1997 Belfort fought Randy Couture. Belfort was handed the first defeat of his career by TKO 8:16 into the match, after his boxing skills were negated by Couture's clinch fighting. After this defeat, he would fight twice more in the UFC. The first of these fights was against Joe Charles, who he defeated quickly via armbar without throwing a single punch. A year later, Belfort faced rising Brazilian star and future Pride Middleweight champion Wanderlei Silva. Catching Silva early with a left cross, Belfort chased him across the ring with a flurry of punches, TKO’ing Silva in just 44 seconds.

Vitor then moved on to fight in Japan's Pride Fighting Championships. His first opponent was Kazushi Sakuraba in 1999. Vitor controlled the first minutes of the fight before ultimately losing a decision to the Japanese fighter. He fought five more times in Pride against Gilbert Yvel, Daijiro Matsui, Bobby Southworth, Yoshiki Takahashi, and Heath Herring. Returning to the UFC, Belfort fought Chuck Liddell & lost via decision, in his return bout Vitor defeated Marvin Eastman, winning via TKO and opening a severe cut on Eastman's eyebrow with a knee strike. His next fight was a rematch with Randy Couture for the UFC light heavyweight championship. Vitor won the fight in 49 seconds after a seam from his glove cut Couture's eye leaving Couture with a corneal abrasion, prompting a referee stoppage. A third match between the two took place on August 21, 2004. Couture won via doctor stoppage after the third round, recapturing the UFC light heavyweight title. His next fight in the UFC was against Tito Ortiz on February 5, 2005. Belfort broke Tito's nose with punches in the first round however Ortiz won the ensuing rounds and Belfort lost by split decision. Vitor went 2-2 in his next 4 fights before finally putting together a 4 fight win streak with his latest victory coming at Affliction: Day of Reckoning, where he KO’d Matt Lindland in just 37 seconds.

Vitor Belfort has been on a roll recently and has been looking a lot like the old Vitor who was KO’ing anyone put in front of him. This fight should be a good test to see just how much he has improved since he was last in the octagon and whether he can be considered as a potential opponent for Anderson Silva in the near future. Rich Franklin has been involved in some of the best fights of this year & I expect this one to be no different. I’ve been going over this fight in my mind again and again and I think there will be two possible outcomes, either Vitor rocks Franklin and puts him away as soon as he connects with his strikes or Franklin uses his well-rounded skills and excellent cardio to grind Vitor down over 3 rounds on his way to a decision. Vitor is known to start his fights explosively but has a habit of losing steam the longer the fight goes, whereas Franklin is the opposite, he tends to start slow but gets stronger and stronger as the fight wears on. This excellent conditioning helped him in his latest fight against Wanderlei Silva as he was able to pick the Brazilian apart in the 3rd round to seal the victory. In terms of each fighters strategy for this fight I think Franklin will avoid exchanging with Vitor for longer than he has to. ‘The Phenom’ is known for his lightening fast hands and he also has the power to go with the speed, so I expect Franklin to be a little more cautious in the stand-up than he usually is. As soon as he is within shooting distance, I think Rich will go for the takedown and attempt to use his ground and pound to take the fight out of Belfort. Vitor’s strategy on the other hand will be to keep the fight standing where he can use his superior striking. If Vitor connects then it could very well be a short night for Rich, this one punch KO ability is what is leading me towards picking Belfort in this fight. Even if Franklin gets the takedown in the first round, I’m not sure if he’ll be able to put Vitor away that early and when the 2nd round starts they will be left standing once again which gives Vitor that one opportunity that he needs to end the fight.

Prediction: Vitor Belfort via TKO.