Friday, 13 November 2009

UFC 105: COUTURE VS. VERA PREDICTIONS

Ross 'The Real Deal' Pearson
Aaron Riley

In the first fight on the main card Ross Pearson will take on veteran fighter Aaron Riley. Pearson began his mixed martial arts career in 2004 losing via submission to Chris Hughes. He won a split decision in his next fight before losing to Kurt Warbuton via doctor’s stoppage. After suffering the 2nd loss of his career Ross went on a 6 win streak before dropping a decision to Abdul Mohamed. Pearson won his next fight against Ian Jones in the first round after securing a rear naked choke, shortly after this fight he was chosen to appear on The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom.

Ross defeated A.J. Wenn by knock out in an elimination match earning him a trip to Las Vegas, Nevada to compete on the show. Pearson had his second fight against Team United States fighter Richie Whitson. Pearson defeated Whitson via armbar submission. Pearson then won his semi-final fight against Jason Dent via unanimous decision. The win put Pearson into the finals against his teammate Andre Winner. Ross fought Winner at The Ultimate Finale 9 in Las Vegas, Nevada. After a going toe-to-toe with Winner for 3 rounds, Pearson won the fight by unanimous decision, along with a six figure contract.

Aaron Riley made his pro debut back in 1997 and put together an impressive 11-1-1 record in the first 2 years of his career which included a 9 fight win streak. This winning run came to an end when he fought Yves Edwards and lost a unanimous decision. Despite this loss Riley fought again just 2 weeks later, this time losing via TKO to Falaniko Vitale. Riley didn’t fight again until the new year and put an end to his losing streak by winning his next 4 fights in a row. This led to a re-match with Yves Edwards, however the result was the same as the first fight with Yves taking a unanimous decision. Shortly after Riley made his first appearance in the UFC, taking on the up & coming Robbie Lawler, after an entertaining fight Riley ended up losing another unanimous decision. It would be 4 years before Riley fought in the UFC again, on his return to the organization he fought Spencer Fisher in a fight that ended after the doctor stopped the fight in the first round due to a cut suffered by Riley.

After losing his first 2 fights in the UFC, Riley was given another chance on the undercard of UFC 91 against Jorge Gurgel. Aaron beat Gurgel by decision, winning the UFC 91 "fight of the night" bonus. After this fight Riley faced TUF 8 cast member Shane Nelson at UFC 96, losing by a controversial technical knockout. A rematch was scheduled immediately, for UFC 101, which Riley won by unanimous decision.

This will be Ross Pearson’s first fight on a main UFC card after winning season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter and Aaron Riley should prove to be a tough test for ‘The Real Deal’. Riley is a veteran of the UFC and has well over 40 fights so he will definitely be coming into this fight with the experience advantage. He is also coming off of a solid win over Shane Nelson in his last fight and is a well rounded fighter. Ross is also well rounded & likes to push the pace in his fights so this should make for an exciting lightweight contest. I expect Ross to come out strong especially as the fans will be right behind him, I think he’ll look to test Riley’s stand-up in the opening few minutes before going for a clinch and possibly a takedown later in the round. As Riley uses a similar game plan as this in his other fights I expect him to use a similar strategy to Ross and this fight should be decided by whoever manages to impose their will on the other fighter.


My Prediction: Ross Pearson via TKO.

James 'Lightning' Wilks
Matt 'The Immortal' Brown

James Wilks will be making his first pay-per-view appearance when he takes on ‘The Immortal’ Matt Brown in the welterweight division. James Wilks had his first professional fight against The Ultimate Fighter 5 competitor, Roman Mitichyan. Wilks won the fight via armbar submission in the second round. After the fight he took around a year break from fighting so he could focus on training his students. He came back to have his second fight and lost to Jimmy Smith. After starting his pro career with a 5-2 mark in local shows in California, Wilks was chosen to compete on The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom.

Representing Team UK under coach Michael Bisping. He defeated the highly-regarded Che Mills by submission in an elimination match earning him a trip to Las Vegas, Nevada to compete on the show. Wilks had his second fight against Team United States fighter Frank Lester. Wilks won the fight by submission in the second round. In the semi-finals, Wilks faced Lester for the second straight time, after Lester returned to the tournament to defeat David Faulkner while substituting for Jason Pierce. In the rematch, Wilks defeated Lester by TKO via Knees in the third round, earning a spot in the live finale. Wilks made his debut for the UFC winning against DaMarques Johnson at the TUF 9 Finale. The fight crowned Wilks as the TUF 9 welterweight champion after he secured a rear naked choke towards the end of the first round.

Matt Brown made his MMA debut in October of 2005 defeating Ricardo Martinez via submission in the very first round. Brown’s MMA record was 6-6 before he was chosen to compete on The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rampage vs. Team Forrest. Brown moved on to the quarter finals of the show by defeating Jeremy May via a leg kick in the first round. Brown was then matched up with Amir Sadollah in the next round but lost by triangle choke in Round 2 of the fight. Since the end of the show Brown has gone 3-1 in the UFC with his latest victory coming at UFC 96 against Pete Sell via TKO after he had Sell rocked several times during the opening few minutes.

This fight could be one of the sleepers on this card; Matt Brown is coming off of an extremely impressive win over Pete Sell in his last fight whereas James Wilks is coming off of a dominating performance at the TUF9 Finale, in which he submitted DaMarques Johnson. Wilks showed well rounded skills in this fight with his stand-up looking noticeably better than when he was on the show. Despite this improved stand-up I still expect Wilks to take this fight to the ground as soon as the opportunity presents itself. His submission skills are excellent and with 5 of Brown’s losses coming by way of submission, there’s definitely a weakness there to be exposed. In order for Brown to win this fight he will need to stuff Wilks’ takedown attempts and try to out-strike the Englishman, but this will be easier said than done. At the end of the night I think Wilks will be too well-rounded for Brown and at some point he will get the takedown before sealing the submission.

My Prediction: James Wilks via submission.


Michael 'The Count' Bisping
Denis Kang

Michael Bisping will be looking to get back to winning ways when he takes on Pride veteran Denis Kang. Kang's MMA career began in 1998 winning by submission over Eric Harcrow. Kang would go on to win his next 2 fights before going 2–5 over his next 8 with one no contest against Dennis Hallman. He would go 7–7 with one no contest in his first 15 fights, with a few convincing defeats. After winning 5 of his next 6 fights, Kang signed a contract with Spirit MC & went 5–0 while fighting in Korea and was crowned the Spirit MC Heavyweight Champion. It was at this time that Kang caught the attention of the PRIDE. Kang signed a contract with PRIDE and made his debut at Bushido 6, where he defeated Takahiro Oba via armbar.

Denis went on to win his next two fights in Pride, with a victory coming over Mark Weir at Bushido 10. In between fights for Pride, Denis fought Albert Basconcelles and knocked him out within 12 seconds of the opening bell. At Bushido 11, Denis Kang continued his winning streak by KO’ing Murilo "Ninja" Rua in 15 seconds in the first round of the PRIDE Bushido Welterweight Grand Prix. At Bushido 12, Denis submitted Amar Suloev via rear naked choke to advance to the semi-final of the Grand Prix. With this win, Kang was then 18–0–1 in his last 19 contests. However, after advancing through the semi-final round of the Bushido tournament and beating Akihiro Gono he was defeated by Kazuo Misaki in the final at Bushido 13. After the contract termination of PRIDE, Kang moved to K-1 Hero's maintaining the championship of Spirit MC. Kang made his K-1 Hero's debut in "K-1 Hero's in Seoul". His opponent was Yoshihiro Akiyama who was returning to MMA after a 10 month suspension. Kang lost via TKO. Kang’s next fight was in the opening round of the DREAM Middleweight Grand Prix, losing to Gegard Mousasi via triangle choke. After winning his next 2 fights, Kang was signed by the UFC and made his debut at UFC 93, losing via submission to Alan Belcher. In his most recent fight, Kang defeated Xavier Foupa-Pokam at UFC 97.

Michael Bisping made his professional mixed martial arts debut at Pride & Glory 2: Battle of the Ages on April 4, 2004, taking a 0:38 armbar victory over Steve Mathews. Just one month later, Bisping scored his first knockout against John Weir at UK MMA Challenge 7: Rage & Fury. In his third MMA match, Bisping became the Cage Rage light heavyweight champion at Cage Rage 7, defeating Mark Epstein by technical knockout. Bisping went on to defend his championship title in a rematch against Epstein at Cage Rage 9 in a knockout victory that solidified Bisping as one of the top light heavyweight fighters in England.

Bisping improved his professional record to 10-0 before being invited to participate in The Ultimate Fighter. He won a preliminary bout against Kristian Rothaermel by TKO, followed by a semi-final win against Ross Pointon by submission after landing a flying knee and a series of strikes. In the finals, Bisping defeated Josh Haynes by TKO at 4:14 into the second round, making Bisping the second light heavyweight winner of The Ultimate Fighter television series. Bisping continued his undefeated streak after the show winning his next 3 UFC bouts. His next match at UFC 78 was against fellow Ultimate fighter winner Rashad Evans & resulted in his first loss, via split decision.

After his loss to Rashad Evans, Bisping announced his decision to drop down to the middleweight division and on April 19th 2008 at UFC 83 Bisping made his debut as a Middleweight against Charles McCarthy. Bisping won by TKO as McCarthy was unable to continue after the first round due to a forearm injury he sustained after receiving an unanswered series of knees and uppercuts from Bisping. He was then victorious in both of his subsequent Middleweight fights against Jason Day & Chris Leben respectively before suffering a KO loss to Dan Henderson at UFC 100.

This is an extremely important fight for Bisping after the devastating loss he suffered at the hands of Dan Henderson. He will need to answer a lot of questions in this bout and Denis Kang is not someone to take lightly. Kang has fought some of the best fighters in the world & has 32 wins in a 46 fight career. Bisping is going to need to push the pace in this fight and use his size advantage to try to wear Denis down, I expect Kang to be at his most dangerous in the beginning of this fight so if Bisping can weather Kang’s early attacks then he might just pull off the victory in this fight. Kang on the other hand will need to look to test Bisping’s chin early on, with the KO defeat he recently suffered, there may be a bit of hesitation in Bisping’s strikes early in the fight and Kang will need to take full advantage of this if he wants to win this fight.

My Prediction: Michael Bisping via decision.


Mike 'Quick' Swick
Dan 'The Outlaw' Hardy


In a welterweight fight that could decide the next challenger GSP’s title, Dan Hardy will take on Mike ‘Quick’ Swick. Dan Hardy began his martial arts training in Tae Kwon Do when he was six years old before switching to Thai boxing a few years later stating that he wanted real fights. Hardy competed in amateur MMA tournaments until his professional debut in 2004, which he lost via rear naked choke. This loss seemed to motivate Hardy to work even harder as he went on to build an impressive record of 19-6-0-1 before making his UFC debut at UFC 89, defeating Akihiro Gono via Split Decision. Gono was left swollen and bloody by several of Hardy's left hooks. In the third round Gono pushed Hardy to the canvas, and while there landed an illegal knee to the face of the downed fighter. This caused the fight to be stopped for a lengthy period. Hardy recovered and went on to win the split decision. The judges saw the bout 29-28 (twice) for Hardy, and 29-28 for Gono.

In his 2nd UFC fight Hardy beat Rory Markham at UFC 95 in the first round by KO with a clean counter left hook. A follow-up shot on the mat brought in Kevin Mulhall to stop the fight. In his post-fight interview, Hardy retorted to Markham's pre-fight accusation that he had weak hands by exclaiming to the ecstatic crowd, "No punching power? What do you have to say about that?” Hardy has spent time training at both Xtreme Couture and the Wildcard Boxing Gym. He received his Blue Belt in Brazilian Ju-Jitsu from Eddie Bravo and currently trains out of the Rough House Gym. In his most recent fight Hardy defeated Marcus Davis via split decision at UFC 99.

Mike Swick made his MMA debut in November 1998 earning a submission victory over Victor Bell in the 1st round, he went on to amass a 5-1 record before becoming a contestant on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter. He was eliminated from the competition after a semi-final loss to Stephan Bonnar. At The Ultimate Fighter finale, Swick defeated Alex Schoenauer by knockout 20 seconds into the first round, earning the nickname "Quick" from UFC announcer Mike Goldberg. Since then he has lived up to his nickname by defeating Gideon Ray via KO in just 22 seconds, Steve Vigneault via submission at 2:09 of the 1st round and Joe Riggs via submission at 2:19 in the 1st. Swick's first UFC defeat came at UFC 69, losing by unanimous decision to Yushin Okami. He had Okami rattled in the second round, but ultimately succumbed to Okami's superior wrestling and physical presence, as he was took down comfortably and suffered an onslaught of ground and pound for the majority of the fight. Since this loss Swick has gone 4-0 with his latest win being TKO of Ben Saunders at UFC 99.

This welterweight bout should prove to be a very exciting fight, both fighters should be coming into the fight full of confidence after putting together some impressive win streaks. In fact the winner of this fight could have a very good shot at getting a fight for the welterweight title in the near future. Given the choice both Swick & Hardy would prefer to stand and trade in most of their fights so I expect the majority of this fight to be more of a kick-boxing bout, Hardy showed some very good stand-up in his last fight against Marcus Davis when many people expected Davis to have a significant advantage in the striking. He has also shown that he has the power to KO his opponents with one punch after stopping Rory Markham with a counter left hook. Mike Swick is also an excellent fighter who possesses KO power, however Swick also has some of the fastest hands in his division and this is something he will need to take advantage of in this fight. If Swick is to dictate the stand-up then he will need to land first and get out of range before Hardy has a chance to counter him, if he can land some quick combinations then he may be able to stun Dan before landing the KO shot. Hardy on the other hand will need to pick his shots carefully and try to counter Swick’s speed with sharp accurate punches; Swick has been KO’d in his career before so there’s every chance that Hardy could catch him if he lands. This fight really could go either way but with the speed advantage that Swick has, then I can see him controlling the stand-up exchanges and taking a decision victory.


My Prediction: Mike Swick via decision.

Randy 'The Natural' Couture
Brandon 'The Truth' Vera

In the main event of the evening Randy Couture will drop back down to the light heavyweight division to take on Brandon Vera. Vera's first professional mixed martial arts bout was on July 6 2002. He won the fight, against Adam Rivera, via TKO in the first round. He fought and won another bout in 2004 before entering a World Extreme Cagefighting heavyweight tournament in 2005, where he won two bouts in one night, including a bout against Mike Whitehead in the finals. Vera then made his UFC debut at Ultimate Fight Night 2 against Fabiano Scherner. Vera won the fight via KO mid-way through the second round. Following the Scherner bout, he faced Justin Eilers at UFC 57, winning early in the first round by knockout. At UFC 60, Vera defeated Assuerio Silva with a guillotine choke. On November 18, he needed just 69 seconds to stop ex-heavyweight champion Frank Mir at UFC 65.

After his demolition of Mir, it was almost a year before Vera stepped into the Octagon again due to some contract issues. His return bout took place at UFC 77 against Tim Sylvia and after going the distance with the former Heavyweight champ, Vera lost for the first time in his career via unanimous decision. After the Sylvia fight Vera suffered his second loss at UFC 85 against Fabricio Werdum by TKO. Following 2 back to back losses Vera decided to drop down to the light heavyweight division & defeated Reese Andy at Ultimate Fight Night 14 via unanimous decision.

At UFC 89 Vera lost to Keith Jardine via a narrow split decision. A more focused Vera appeared on the preliminary card of UFC 96. It was the first time Vera wasn't on the main card since he made his debut in the UFC. He put on an impressive performance against Mike Patt, showing a more aggressive and intense striking approach and stopping Patt via TKO (Leg kicks) in the 2nd round. At UFC 102 Vera took on Krzysztof Soszynski and ended up getting the unanimous decision victory.

Randy Couture began his MMA career in May 1997, defeating Tony Halme via submission at UFC 13. After winning his first 3 fights, Couture had a chance to fight Maurice Smith for the UFC Heavyweight title and won via majority decision. His reign as champion didn’t last long as he went on to lose his next 2 fights back to back. After getting back to winning ways Couture won his 2nd UFC Heavyweight title after stopping Kevin Randleman via TKO at UFC 28. He went on to successfully defend his title twice after beating Pedro Rizzo in straight back-to-back victories. Shortly after the Rizzo fights Couture lost to both Josh Barnett & Ricco Rodriguez and decided to move down a weight class to fight at 205 lbs in the UFC's light heavyweight division. In his light heavyweight debut, Couture took on long-time number one contender Chuck Liddell for the interim light heavyweight championship. Couture won by TKO in the third round, and became the only UFC competitor to win championship titles in two weight classes.

His next match was billed as a "Champion vs. Champion" fight in order to settle who was the rightful, undisputed champion of the division. Couture faced the five-time defending champion Tito Ortiz for the undisputed light heavyweight title. Couture won a unanimous decision and became the undisputed UFC light heavyweight champion at age 40. On April 16, 2005, Couture lost his title and suffered the first knockout loss of his career in a rematch with Chuck Liddell. Couture came back in August with a win over Mike Van Arsdale to re-establish himself as a top contender. He faced Liddell again for the third and final time in a championship match at UFC 57. He did not succeed, falling victim to a second round knockout. Immediately after the match, he announced his retirement from the sport.

Couture ended his retirement at UFC 68 when he took on Tim Sylvia for the UFC Heavyweight title, he ended up shocking the world again by defeating the 6’8 Sylvia by unanimous decision. Couture defended his title against Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 74, defeating the Brazilian via TKO stoppage in the 2nd round. After defending his title Couture was involved with a contract dispute with the UFC resulting in him not fighting at all in 2008. Finally the two sides came to an agreement & on September 2, 2008 the UFC announced a 3 fight deal with the now 45 year old Randy Couture to return to active competition for the UFC. His first fight back was at UFC 91 where he lost his UFC Heavyweight Championship to Brock Lesnar. It was at first a closely contested match, however, later in the fight Lesnar knocked Couture down and finished him with hammer fists for a TKO victory at 3:07 of the second round. In Couture’s most recent fight he took on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 102, in a fight that lived up to the hype Couture showed his heart as he fought Nogueira until the very end of the 3rd round before losing a decision.

Brandon Vera needs to win this fight in style in order to fully live up to his potential, since moving down to the light heavyweight division Vera has shown glimpses of what he is capable of but all too often he has failed to finish his fights as impressively as he did when he first burst onto the scene. This will be Couture’s first fight at 205lbs since 2006 and with 2 losses in his most recent fights he will not want to be on the losing end again on Saturday. This fight should be an interesting clash of styles, Couture will want to close the distance and get the clinch where he can use his dirty boxing to wear Vera down before possibly getting a takedown. Whereas Vera will want to keep the distance and use his excellent stand-up to go for the KO , if the fight goes to the ground Vera should be able to hold his own as he possesses excellent BJJ and will be dangerous off his back. However, I think it would be too much of a risk to allow Couture to get top control in this fight as Vera may struggle to get the former Heavyweight & Light Heavyweight champion off of him due to Couture’s world class wrestling base. Randy will surely have an excellent game plan coming into this fight however, Vera only needs to land one shot and after seeing Couture get dropped in previous fights by powerful strikers I’m leaning towards a Vera KO in this fight.


Prediction: Brandon Vera via KO.