Jason ‘The Athlete’ MacDonald
Demian Maia
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu phenom Demian Maia takes on veteran fighter Jason ‘The Athlete’ MacDonald in the first fight of the main card. Both of these fighters are known for their excellent submission skills so I expect most of this fight to take place on the ground. Jason definitely has the experience advantage in this fight, this being his 30th professional fight (7th in the octagon,) so the Octagon nerves won’t be a factor for ‘The Athlete’ Maia however has only had 2 previous fights in the UFC both of which were preliminary fights that didn’t make it onto the main card, so it’ll be interesting to see if this has any effect on the Brazilian fighter. In terms of who has the advantage on the ground Maia has tremendous Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and even though Jason has finished 16 of his fights via submission I would still have to give the edge to Maia in this fight, Maia won the 77kg - 87kg weight division at the 2007 ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship and has beaten the likes of Yushin Okami, Rafael Lovato, and Tarsis Humphres in BJJ competitions. Maia has been extremely impressive in recent outings defeating Ultimate Fighter semi-finalist Ed Herman via submission and winning submission of the night in the process, the 2nd time in a row that he’s won this accolade. MacDonald’s form however has been up and down in recent fights, after putting together a 6-fight win streak and earning the right to face Rich Franklin, MacDonald went on to lose 2 of his next 4 fights. He will be coming into this fight after TKO’ing Joe Doerksen in his last bout and will be looking to start putting together another good win streak to try and get back into the Middleweight title picture. MacDonald’s best chance at winning this fight is to keep it standing where he seems to have an advantage over Maia, who’s stand-up is much weaker than his ground game. If Jason allows himself to get taken down by Maia however, then it could end up being a long night for ‘The Athlete’.
My Prediction: Demian Maia via submission
Manny ‘The Anvil’ Gamburyan
Rob ‘The Saint’ Emerson
Ultimate Fighter 5 contestants Rob Emerson and Manny Gamburyan face off in this Lightweight bout. Manny has been really impressive since debuting on the Ultimate Fighter 5 earning victories over the likes of Matt Wiman & Joe Lauzon on his way to the finale of the show. Gamburyan was extremely unlucky in his fight against Nate Diaz after dominating the 1st round, he was forced to tap out in the 2nd after dislocating his shoulder. Since the finale Manny has put together 2 wins and will be looking to continue his winning ways and get another step closer to the top guys in the Lightweight division. Both fighters are coming into this fight having won their last bouts, a win for Manny in this match would help him to continue climbing the Lightweight division ladder. Rob Emerson, despite his professional record, is a tough fight for most people in this division and he will be really motivated to win this bout as he looks to set up a re-match with Gray Maynard after their last fight ended in a controversial no-contest. I expect Manny to set a high pace early on in this fight and come out swinging, just like his cousin and fellow MMA fighter Karo Parisyan. Rob’s best tactic in this fight is to try and keep Manny at bay with his reach advantage, which is easier said than done against a guy who pushes the pace like Manny does, if he allows Manny to take him down then it will be difficult for Rob to get up and he could find himself on the wrong end of a judges decision. Manny however will be looking to close the gap in this fight and use his judo skills to throw Rob to the ground, where he can unleash some of his ground and pound strikes while looking for the stoppage.
My Prediction: Manny Gamburyan via TKO
Kenny ‘KenFlo’ Florian
Roger ‘El Matador’ Huerta
Kenny ‘KenFlo’ Florian takes on Roger ‘El Matador’ Huerta in a fight which will determine exactly who is the number one contender for BJ Penn’s Lightweight title. Both fighters should be coming into this fight full of confidence, with Kenny winning his last 4 fights and looking more and more impressive with each fight, we should see the best Kenny Florian yet for this fight. Huerta is also on a roll, coming into this fight with an impressive 16 fight win-streak. This is an intriguing match-up as Roger had previously stated several times that he planned to take the rest of this year off from fighting until he heard Kenny call him out, since debuting in the UFC Roger has gone on an unstoppable run winning all 6 of his fights and becoming one of the most recognized fighters in the UFC today. Despite all this many fight fans consider Huerta to be the underdog in this fight and I would tend to agree with them, even though Roger has the more impressive record he hasn’t really faced the level of competition that his opponent has and this could very well be a deciding factor in this fight. Kenny has fought some of the toughest fighters in the Middleweight and Lightweight divisions including Diego Sanchez, Drew Fickett, Sean Sherk & Joe Lauzon along with many others. Although he hasn’t always come out of these fights on the winning side, he has never really been decisively stopped apart from his loss to Diego Sanchez (who is a much bigger than Kenny and fights in the Welterweight division.) Kenny is extremely well rounded with excellent Muay Thai, he is equally comfortable on the ground where he has a BJJ black belt as well as some of the most vicious elbows in MMA which he has used to stop many opponents. Huerta is also well rounded with good wrestling and striking skills, although he can be prone to getting into brawls with his opponents as evidenced in his last fight against Clay Guida. Huerta’s best shot at winning this fight is to try and get KenFlo on the ground and try to control him with his ground and pound while watching out for Florian’s submissions. Kenny on the other hand will either look to keep the fight standing and try to knock Huerta out or try and take Roger out on the ground where he can use his elbow strikes to try and end the fight. Another important fact to consider in this fight is that Roger has been out of the octagon since last December and there’s no telling just how much this will affect him, 8 months is a long time in the fight game and the ring rust could take it’s toll on Huerta.
My Prediction: Kenny Florian via TKO
Brock Lesnar
Heath ‘The Texas Crazy Horse’ Herring
In the main Heavyweight bout of the night top Heavyweight prospect Brock Lesnar faces a tough test in former Pride veteran Heath 'The Texas Crazy Horse' Herring. With this being only his 3rd pro fight Lesnar definitely hasn’t been given any easy fights in the UFC, after fighting former champion Frank Mir in his UFC debut, he will need to be at his best as he takes on a re-juvenated Heath Herring, who has looked like a completely different fighter recently compared to some of his earlier UFC showings. Herring is coming into this fight off of an impressive victory over Cheick Kongo and is rumored to be in the best shape he’s ever been in. Even though Lesnar lost his UFC debut, he looked extremely impressive against Mir and ended up causing more damage than he received before his inexperience at this level ended up getting him caught in a submission. Brock will need to be a lot more careful with his submission defence on the ground after his last fight and it’ll be interesting to see just how much he’s improved his ground game in the last 5 months. Ideally Brock will want to start this fight the same as his previous one and try and get Herring on his back while using his heavy strikes to try and get the TKO. Herring is a lot more well rounded than Brock and he’ll probably want to try and test Brock’s stand-up, which is still somewhat of a mystery, I doubt Herring will try grappling with Brock who is a world-class wrestler & who is probably a lot stronger than Heath, so trying to exchange strikes seems like the most logical strategy for Heath. Although Heath seems to be the overwhelming favourite in this fight I still wouldn’t be surprised to see Brock pull off an upset, with the power he has and his excellent wrestling ability, if his submission skills have improved then Lesnar could very well walk out of this fight with his first UFC victory.
My Prediction: Brock Lesnar via TKO
Georges ‘Rush’ St-Pierre
Jon Fitch
In the main event of the evening Welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre takes on number one contender Jon Fitch. This moment has been a long time in the making for Jon Fitch, who has racked up an impressive 15-fight win streak leading upto this bout. Fitch has never complained about not receiving a title shot and has beaten every fighter who has been put in front of him in the UFC, his unbeaten record of 8-0 in the UFC making him a more than worthy challenger for GSP’s title. After avenging his loss to Matt Serra and becoming the Undisputed Welterweight champion Georges seems like he’s got his focus back and is determined to send a message out to the rest of the Welterweight division that he is the number 1 guy, which is bad news for Fitch as a determined GSP is extremely dangerous as we’ve previously seen in his re-matches against Matt Hughes & Matt Serra. Fitch is a well rounded fighter with good stand-up and excellent wrestling skills, he has also recently attained his black belt in BJJ so he should have no problems taking this fight to the ground if he wants to. One of Fitch’s best skills is his ability to transition from the stand-up to the ground seamlessly, making him one of the few fighters who are complete Mixed Martial Artist's. I think that if Fitch is going to win this fight then he will need to wear GSP down over the course of the 5 rounds, Jon has really good cardio and we’ve yet to see St-Pierre go to the 5th round, will we still see the same explosive St-Pierre in the 5th round as Fitch keeps coming after him trying to grind him down and break his spirit? GSP is similar to Fitch in that he’s also a complete Mixed Martial Artist and is very well rounded, in fact GSP may just be the most naturally gifted athlete in MMA today, having had no wrestling lessons while in school and only really starting to pick it up while training MMA, St-Pierre has managed to out-wrestle some of the best wrestlers in the Welterweight division and he continues to improve each time he steps into the octagon. GSP should be comfortable wherever this fight goes but he’ll probably be looking to keep it standing if given the opportunity, here he can use his spinning kicks and unorthodox punches to try and unsettle Fitch and maybe catch the challenger off guard. Whatever happens in this fight I’m sure we’ll be in for a classic battle.
My Prediction: GSP via decision
