Thursday, 15 January 2009

UFC 93: FRANKLIN VS. HENDERSON PREDICTIONS


Jeremy Horn
Rousimar 'Toquinho' Palhares

Jeremy Horn, a veteran of the UFC and one of the most experienced fighters in MMA today will be looking to get his career back on track after losing his last two fights when he takes on the up and coming Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist Rousimar Palhares. Palhares is also coming into this fight off of a loss so this should make for an interesting match-up as he will need to show what he is made of in this fight, whereas another loss for Horn could possibly end his contract with the UFC. Since making his return to the UFC back in 2005 Horn has lost 3 of his 5 fights for the organization, so an impressive win in this bout is essential for the veteran fighter.

In order for Horn to win this fight I feel that he would be better off keeping the fight standing, which is one area of Palhares’ game that still needs improving as evidenced in his last fight against Dan Henderson. Even though Horn is well experienced in submissions I feel that it would be a mistake for him to go to the ground with Palhares, who has 6 of his 8 wins coming by way of submission and who’s BJJ is on another level. Horn will need to follow the same game plan as Dan Henderson and try to control Palhares with his striking, although I think this will prove to be lot more difficult for Horn than it was for Henderson as he is lacking the KO power that Dan possesses and if Palhares is not afraid of Horn's power then he will go for the takedown all night. If Palhares can get this fight to the ground then I can see him taking this fight via submission however if it stays standing then unless he has made significant improvements to his striking the Horn would get the decision.

My Prediction: Rousimar Palhares via submission


Marcus 'The Irish Hand Grenade' Davis
Chris 'Lights Out' Lytle


Marcus 'The Irish Hand Grenade' Davis will be taking on Chris 'Light's Out' Lytle in this Welterweight division clash after both fighters put on impressive performances in their last bouts at UFC 89. Marcus Davis submitted tough British fighter Paul Kelly in the 2nd round, while Chris Lytle won a close decision against Paul Taylor in a bout that earned the “Fight of the Night” award. Both fighters should be coming into this bout full of confidence although Marcus had a more impressive performance after stopping his opponent whereas Lytle’s fight appeared to take it’s toll on the veteran.

This fight could very well end up stealing the show with both fighters already claiming that neither of them will be going for the takedown as they would each prefer to stand up and slug it out. As Lytle and Davis both possess boxing backgrounds, it’ll be hard to separate them in the stand-up battle, in my opinion Marcus is the more technically sound fighter, as he uses slick combinations and angles to set up his punches whereas Lytle tends to prefer to loop his punches, looking to land that big knockout blow. If this fight does indeed stay standing then I can see Marcus out-striking Lytle and getting a decision if he doesn’t get dragged into brawling with Chris. Even though I’d give him the edge in the stand-up, I still think that Marcus would be better off trying to take Lytle down, where he should be able control Lytle and possibly get the submission or TKO stoppage. The only way I can see Lytle winning this fight is if he can somehow get Marcus to brawl with him and maybe catch him off-guard, if not though this could end up being a long night for Chris Lytle. At the end of the night I think that Davis will walk away with either a decision victory or a TKO in the 2nd round.

My Prediction: Marcus Davis via TKO


Alan 'The Talent' Belcher
Denis Kang

Denis Kang will be making his UFC debut when he takes on Alan 'The Talent' Belcher. Thus far into his UFC career Belcher has had some fairly mixed performances with a record of 4-3, however a win against someone of Kang’s stature would propel Belcher right back into the mix in the middleweight division and could set him up for a winning streak. Denis Kang is a PRIDE veteran and one of the top middleweights in the world today, he is currently on a 2 fight win streak with his last victory coming by way of KO against Marvin Eastman in 48 seconds.

I expect Belcher to try to keep this fight standing where he’ll attempt to use his Muay Thai skills to out-strike Kang. However this is easier said than done as Kang has a lot more to his game than just a black belt in BJJ, he also possesses an excellent stand-up game, with 12 of his 31 wins coming by way of KO. In saying that Kang’s best chance at winning this fight is by taking Belcher to the ground where he can use his superior submission skills to good use and go for the victory. Even though his best chance at winning this fight is on the ground don’t be surprised if Kang prefers to stay standing and exchange strikes in his debut in order to give the fans a good show and go for an impressive KO.

My Prediction: Denis Kang via KO


Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua
Mark 'The Hammer' Coleman

Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua will be making his long awaited return from his ACL surgery when he takes on Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman in a grudge match from PRIDE 31: Unbreakable. Shogun has been recovering from various injuries for 15 months now and after a disappointing debut against Forrest Griffin, he will need an impressive victory against Coleman to convince everyone that he is still one of the top light heavyweight fighters in the world today. Coleman is also coming into this fight off of a knee injury and will be returning to the UFC for the first time since 1999, as well as appearing in the UFC for the first time in 10 years, Coleman will also be having his very first fight in the light heavyweight division after competing in the heavyweight division since the beginning of his career.

In the first meeting between these fighters Coleman was declared the winner via TKO only 49 seconds into the fight as Shogun had dislocated his shoulder. Both fighters should be extremely motivated for the rematch as Shogun will want to prove that the dislocation was a freak accident and Coleman will want to prove that he was the one to force the dislocated shoulder. With this fight taking place in the Octagon Coleman should possess an advantage, his wrestling is world class & even though he’s not as explosive as he was at the beginning of his career, he is still more than capable of using the cage to get the takedown in this fight. With Shogun having only one previous fight in the Octagon it’s kind of hard to judge just how well he’ll adjust after some of his favoured attacks in PRIDE have been taken away (soccer kicks etc) from him.

If Shogun is in shape for this fight and can keep Coleman from taking him down then he should be able to use his superior stand-up to defeat Mark. Although Shogun’s strikes can be wild at times I don’t think Coleman is good enough to take advantage of the holes in Shogun’s striking. Coleman will want to try and take this fight to the ground as soon as possible, so look for him to avoid Shoguns strikes in the opening stages before shooting in and attempting to get the takedown. Shogun however will look to utilize his punches and knees from the clinch to overwhelm Coleman and attempt to avenge his loss by getting the KO.

My Prediction: Mauricio Rua via TKO.


Rich 'Ace' Franklin
Dan 'Hendo' Henderson

In the main event of the night Dan Henderson will take on Rich Franklin in what many considered to be a dream match-up a couple of years ago when both men were champions of their respective organizations. Although they no longer hold any titles this is still an exciting match-up that should live up to it’s hype. Dan Henderson will be looking to build on the momentum he gained in his last fight by defeating Rousimar Palhares and take one step closer to the re-match that he so badly wants against Middleweight champion Anderson 'The Spider' Silva. Rich Franklin meanwhile will be looking to continue re-building his career in the light heavyweight division after deciding that the cut to middleweight was beginning to take it’s toll.

Franklin’s stand-up looked crisp and sharp in his last fight against Matt Hamill and if he is to beat Henderson then I feel that this is an area where he’ll need to focus on. Henderson’s wrestling is world class and I can’t see Franklin wanting to get involved in a clinch with Dan, who has dominated opponents with his dirty boxing in this position previously. Although Dan has been taken down in fights before I don’t see Rich going for a takedown unless he get’s caught by one of Henderson’s big punches, Rich will need to be fully focused when he exchanges as one mistake could see Henderson land that big right hand and it could be all over for Rich if that happens. Although Henderson possesses knockout power in both hands, I think that Rich has a slight advantage in the striking department, his strikes are a lot more technical and he combines his punches & kicks well. If Rich is going to win this fight then he needs to control the pace of the stand-up and if he can do that successfully without getting into a brawl then I could possibly see him getting the decision victory. Henderson on the other hand will be looking to drag Rich into his type of fight, by utilizing the clinch and using his dirty boxing, which may also give him a chance at landing one of his big shots, if Henderson isn’t winning the stand-up then I can see him taking Franklin down and working his ground and pound on Rich to get the TKO victory.

My Prediction: Dan Henderson via TKO