Nate Diaz
Clay ‘The Carpenter’ Guida Nate Diaz fights on the UFC pay-per-view main card for the first time when he takes on the always tough veteran Clay Guida. Diaz has been on a tear since winning a UFC contract on The Ultimate Fighter 5, where he defeated Manny Gamburyan in the final, winning all 5 of his fights since the end of the show. Diaz has been slowly stepping up the level of his competition since the finale, until eventually he demanded tougher fights after his win over Alvin Robinson, since then he has fought Kurt Pellegrino & Josh Neer, earning both “Submission of the Night” and “ Fight of the Night” awards for those respective bouts. Clay Guida should provide Diaz with the challenge that he has been looking for since winning the Ultimate Fighter, Guida is renowned for his unrelenting pressure and everlasting stamina. Even though he has 3 losses thus far in the UFC Guida has only been stopped once & that was by Roger Huerta via submission. Clay has also suffered losses outside of the UFC also by submission but has never been KO’d. He holds some impressive wins in his MMA career including a victory over current Strikeforce Lightweight champion Josh ‘The Punk’ Thompson and a recent victory over Ultimate Fighter 6 winner Mac Danzig.
Seeing as Diaz holds a brown belt in Cesar Gracie jiu-jitsu I think that his best chance at winning this fight is by taking Guida to the ground, although Clay also has good submission skills Diaz is on another level and Clay has shown that he can be vulnerable to submissions in the past. Clay will need to try and use his wrestling background to keep this fight standing, where he can use his aggressiveness style to attempt to overwhelm Diaz. Nate is a somewhat unorthodox striker, choosing to throw a lot of punches at his opponents but not putting much power into his shots, if Clay can get past these strikes then he will have a good chance at pulling off the victory. Although personally I think that this fight will go to the ground at some point and Diaz will end up getting the submission victory.
My Prediction: Nate Diaz via submission.
Karo ‘The Heat’ Parisyan
Dong ‘Stun Gun’ Hyun KimKaro Parisyan will be making his long awaited return to the UFC when he takes on the undefeated Korean fighter Dong Hyun Kim. Karo’s last fight in the UFC took place back in April at UFC Fight Night 13 against Thiago ‘Pitbull’ Alves, a fight which he lost via TKO. Karo was originally scheduled to return at UFC 88 against Yoshiyuki “Zenko” Yoshida before a back injury forced him to withdraw from the fight just before the weigh-ins. With the Welterweight division becoming increasingly more competitive Karo will need to win this fight impressively if he is to get back into title contention. This will be Dong Hyun Kim’s 3rd fight in the UFC so any octagon nerves that he may have had previously should be well and truly gone. In his UFC career to date Kim is unbeaten and has gone 2-0 (11-0-1 overall) although his latest victory caused some controversy, with many people believing that his opponent Matt Brown should have got the decision after Kim appeared to run out of gas in the 2nd round.
Both of these fighters will want to get the victory in this fight badly, Kim will feel that he has a point to prove after his last fight and Karo will want to send a message to everyone else in the Welterweight division that he is back. With most of Kim’s victories coming by way of KO, Karo would be better off using his Judo in this fight to take it to the ground. If Karo can then maintain dominant position on the ground he should be able to either get the submission or overwhelm Kim with his ground and pound. Kim will need to be wary of Karo’s throws and with his own Judo background try to counter the Armenian. If Kim can keep this fight standing and avoid Karo’s wild haymaker punches then he could pick Karo apart on the feet and get the decision victory. One factor that could very well decided this fight is each fighters cardio, Karo is known for relentlessly pursuing his opponents and as I mentioned earlier Kim looked to run out of gas early in his fight against Matt Brown, will Kim be able to go 3 rounds with ‘The Heat’?
My Prediction: Karo Parisyan via TKO
Stephan ‘American Psycho’ Bonnar
Jon ‘Bones’ JonesStephan Bonnar will return to the octagon for the first time since October 2007 when he takes on the fast rising light heavyweight fighter Jon Jones. Since Bonnar’s last fight, a TKO win against Eric Schafer, he has been recovering from a serious knee injury that forced him to withdraw from his scheduled fight at UFN 13 in April 2008. After being out of action for such a long time, Bonnar will be looking to prove that his knee is 100% and that he’s ready to take on the best fighters in the division. Before he can do that though he will need to find a way to get past the undefeated up & comer Jon Jones. Jones made his UFC debut at UFC 87, defeating another unbeaten prospect in Andre Gusmao. At only 21 years of age Jones’ potential is scary, he made his professional MMA debut back in April 2008 and has already amassed an impressive 7-0 record, with an impressive wrestling background and KO power in his hands Jones looks to be a real threat in the light heavyweight division.
Bonnar is a very well-rounded fighter who is equally comfortable on the ground, where he possesses a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under the legendary Carlson Gracie, as on his feet (he was also a former Chicago Golden Gloves boxer.) Bearing this in mind I think that his best chance at winning this fight is by taking Jones to the ground, an area that we haven’t really seen Jones tested in yet. If Bonnar can get Jones down and control him we will then get to see exactly what the young prospect is made of. Jones on the other hand will want to keep this fight standing and hope to land one of his big punches and KO the Ultimate Fighter veteran. If Jones can get the victory in this fight then he will be sending out a message to everyone else at light heavyweight.
My Prediction: Jon Jones via KO.
Lyoto ‘The Dragon’ Machida
Thiago Silva The main light heavyweight bout of the night see’s two unbeaten Brazilians in Lyoto Machida and Thiago Silva collide as they look to decide just who will be the next contender for Rashad Evans’ light heavyweight championship. Originally these two fighters were scheduled to face off at UFC 89 before a back injury sustained by Thiago put the fight on hold; with his back now 100% healed Thiago will be looking to extend his 13-0 unbeaten record by defeating his fellow countryman Lyoto Machida. Like his opponent Machida is also 13-0, with victories over some world class fighters including BJ Penn, Rich Franklin & Tito Ortiz to name a few.
Lyoto is well-known for fighting out of a south-paw stance & using a variety of Shotokan Karate techniques in his fights. Even though this style has proved to be extremely successful for Machida it has divided a lot of MMA fans in their opinion of ‘The Dragon’, with some fans praising his elusive style while others claim that his style is boring. Despite all the talk over his stand-up, there is much more to Machida’s game than just un-orthodox striking, he also possesses good wrestling and ground skills as he showed in his last fight against Tito Ortiz, preventing the former champion from getting a single takedown. Machida proved to a lot of people in that fight that he is the real deal.
Fighting out of the famed Chute Boxe academy Thiago Silva is an aggressive striker with excellent ground skills, thus far in his MMA career Thiago has shown that he has power in his hands by knocking out 10 of his 13 opponents. Although Thiago has had good success with his stand-up in past fights I don’t think that it would be wise for him to exchange strikes with Machida, who will counter Thiago all night long if he keeps going after Machida with his aggressive style. It would be in Silva’s best interests to try and get Machida to the ground where he can then use his ground and pound skills to control Machida. Lyoto on the other hand will want to use his wrestling to keep this fight standing where he can use his elusive stand-up to pick Thiago apart on his way to a decision victory.
My Prediction: Lyoto Machida via decision.
Georges ‘Rush’ St-Pierre
BJ ‘The Prodigy’ Penn In the main event of the evening UFC Lightweight champion BJ Penn will go up in weight to the Welterweight division to challenge Georges St-Pierre for his Welterweight title in a re-match of their first fight from UFC 58. In this first encounter GSP won a split-decision in a very closely contested fight. Many people felt that BJ was winning the fight until he seemed to run out of gas. Since losing to GSP & Matt Hughes, BJ moved back down to his natural weight class and began to focus more on his cardio, the results of which were impressive with BJ capturing the Lightweight title and putting together a 3 fight win streak in the process. This now looks to be the best BJ Penn that we’ve seen and a focused BJ is a force to be reckoned with.
GSP on the other hand has gone 5-1 since the first time these fighters met, with the single loss coming at the hands of Matt Serra in a fight that shocked the MMA world. At that time going into the fight against Matt Serra many thought that GSP would go on to dominate the Welterweight division for years to come and maybe GSP also started to believe the hype aswell as Matt Serra came out and put on a performance that stunned the champion and ended up giving GSP his very first TKO loss. Since that loss GSP has re-dedicated himself to training and has taken his game to a whole new level, defeating all the contenders put in front of him before finally getting revenge against Matt Serra in a re-match for his Welterweight title.
With both fighters so focused on cementing their places in MMA history, this fight has all the makings of a classic. The big question for BJ in this fight is will his cardio be up to the challenge at 170lbs & will he be ready to go all 5 rounds? BJ definitely has all the tools to pull off the victory in this fight with his excellent submissions & improved stand-up, I don’t think that GSP will take BJ to the ground as we all know that BJ is a phenom when it comes to submissions and even though GSP recently received his black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu it won’t be enough to deal with Penn’s level of BJJ. GSP will most likely keep this fight standing where he can use his un-orthodox striking to un-settle Penn while attempting to work the clinch & use his kicks. GSP is the more athletic and stronger fighter in this bout and if he can use these skills to his advantage then he stands an excellent chance of winning. At the end of the night I feel that this bout will be decided by 2 factors, the first is whether BJ can get GSP to the ground. If this happens then I think that BJ will have an excellent chance at ending this fight early with a submission. The second is whether BJ will have enough in him to go the 4th & 5th rounds with GSP, Georges has shown that he is more than capable of going the full 5 rounds and finishing just as strong as he starts whereas Penn has always had that question about his cardio hanging over him in every fight. If this fight does go into the later rounds, which I think that it will, then I can see GSP taking the win via decision.
My Prediction: GSP via decision
