Thursday, 5 March 2009

UFC 96: JACKSON VS. JARDINE PREDICTIONS

Gray 'The Bully' Maynard
Jim Miller

Gray Maynard will look to extend his undefeated record in MMA when he takes on Cage Fury Fighting Championships Lightweight Champion and Reality Fighting Featherweight Champion Jim Miller. Maynard made his professional MMA debut back in April 2006 defeating Josh Powell in the very first round, Gray then went on to defeat Brent Weedman via decision before becoming a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter 5. Maynard beat Wayne Weems in the preliminary round before advancing to the quarter finals where he faced Brandon Melendez in a tough matchup and won the fight with a guillotine choke in the second round. He eventually went out of the competition in the semi-finals, losing in the second round against the eventual winner of the show Nate Diaz due to guillotine choke.

At The Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale, Gray fought Rob Emerson in a controversial fight. Gray seemed to be in control of the fight before he picked up Emerson in the beginning of the second round and slammed him to the mat. Emerson immediately tapped out because of an injury to his ribs but at the same time the referee claimed that Gray also could not continue because he seemed to have hit his head on the mat and knocked himself out, therfore the fight was ruled a "No Contest." Since the Ultimate Fighter finale Gray has gone 4-0 in the UFC and will need an impressive showing against Miller if he wants to get into title contention.

Jim Miller had his first professional MMA fight in November 2005 against Eddie Fyvie at Reality Fighting 10. Miller controlled the fight and earned a unanimous decision victory. He then built a 5-0 winning streak before losing a unanimous decision to Frankie Edgar in a fight for the Reality Fighting Lightweight title. Since suffering his first loss Miller has gone on an 8 fight win streak including two wins in the UFC, the latest coming against Matt Wiman at UFC: Fight For The Troops.

Both of these fighters possess backgrounds in wrestling, although Gray is the more accomplished out of the two. Maynard ranked 11th all-time in Michigan State University history with 106 career wins when he graduated and is also a 3-time All-American. Miller competed in wrestling in high school and had one year of collegiate wrestling at Virginia Tech before he switched over to MMA full-time and began training out of Planet Jiu Jitsu. Considering both fighters’ backgrounds I think that we’ll see this fight go to the ground fairly early, with Maynard initiating the takedown. Miller will look to work for submissions off of his back and Gray will need to be careful early on as Miller has won 9 of his fights with submissions. In saying that with his excellent wrestling skills Gray should be able to control Miller on the ground and as long as he is careful then I can see him ground and pounding his way to a unanimous decision victory.

My Prediction: Gray Maynard via decision.


Matt 'The Hammer' Hamill
Mark 'The Filipino Wrecking Machine' Munoz

Matt Hamill will look to continue re-building his light heavyweight title chances when he takes on the undefeated Filipino American fighter Mark Munoz. Matt Hamill was a three-time NCAA Division III National Champion in wrestling before he was chosen to appear as a contestant on the third season of The Ultimate Fighter. He won his preliminary fight on the show against Mike Nickels via decision, but was unable to continue into the semi-finals due to injuries suffered during that fight. In June 2006, Hamill made his professional MMA debut against Jesse Forbes at The Ultimate Fighter 3 Finale and won via TKO.

Hamill then went 3-0 in his pro career before suffering a very controversial first loss to Michael Bisping at UFC 75. Hamill then defeated Tim Boetsch via TKO before taking on former Middleweight Champion Rich Franklin; Hamill suffered his second defeat in this fight after getting picked apart in the stand-up by Franklin, who eventually ended the fight in the third round with a liver kick. Matt returned to the octagon two months later to fight Reese Andy at UFC 92, Hamill stopped Andy in the second round by TKO due to strikes.

Mark Munoz made his professional debut in July 2007 against Austin Anchorn and ended the fight in the first round via TKO. Munoz has since gone 5-0 in his MMA career and this will be his very first appearance in the Octagon. On paper these fighters have similar styles; both have a wrestling base and both also possess KO power in their hands that can end the fight at any time. I would have to give a slight edge to Munoz in the wrestling department although how much that will help him in this fight is questionable as I can see most of this fight taking place standing, as both fighters are such strong wrestlers that they may end up cancelling each other out. If this fight does indeed stay standing then Hamill should have the experience to take this one. In saying that though we’ve seen a few undefeated fighters debut recently against experienced opponents and come out on top. Will we see another upset in this fight? In my opinion unless Hamill loses concentration or gets drawn into a brawl then he should have enough to see off the Filipino American and get back on track in the light heavyweight division by handing Munoz his first loss.

My Prediction: Matt Hamill via KO.


Pete 'Drago' Sell
Matt 'The Immortal' Brown

Pete Sell will be looking to improve his record in the UFC after finally breaking his 3 fight losing streak in his last fight when he takes on Matt Brown. Pete Sell made his professional debut in June 2002 against Rob Biegley earning a decision victory to kick-start his career. Sell then went 5-0 in his MMA career before getting his big break against Phil Baroni at UFC 51, Sell was a big underdog in this fight and surprised a lot of people when he managed to secure a Guillotine Choke on Baroni in the final seconds of the fight securing a submission victory over the ‘New York Bad Ass’.

Sell then competed on The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback, he defeated "Chainsaw" Charles McCarthy in his first fight to move on the semi-finals of the competition, where he lost to the winner of the tournament; Travis Lutter. Since that fight Sell has compiled an overall MMA record of 8-5, winning his latest fight (his first at Welterweight) against Josh Burkman at UFC 90 via decision.

Matt Brown made his MMA debut in October of 2005 defeating Ricardo Martinez via submission in the very first round. Brown’s MMA record was 6-6 before he was chosen to compete on The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rampage vs. Team Forrest. Brown moved on to the quarter finals of the show by defeating Jeremy May via a leg kick in the first round. Brown was then matched up with Amir Sadollah in the next round but lost by triangle choke in Round 2 of the fight. Since the end of the show Brown has gone 2-1 in the UFC with his latest victory coming at UFC 91 against Ryan Thomas via submission.

Pete Sell is on a mission after finally securing a victory in his last fight and will be looking to put together a winning run in the Welterweight division to get his career back on track. I think that Sell will come out looking to exchange strikes in the first round before using his strength advantage to take Brown to the ground where Sell can then put his BJJ black belt to good use by going for the submission. Matt has been submitted 5 times in his career thus far, so there is definitely a weakness there for Sell to exploit especially early in the fight while both fighters are still fresh. From Brown’s point of view after the initial striking exchange he will attempt to keep the fight standing, where he has a chance at catching Sell and perhaps get a shock KO. At the end of the night however I think that Brown will be unable to stop the physically bigger Pete Sell from getting the takedown and from there I feel that Sell will eventually get the submission.

My Prediction: Pete Sell via submission.


Gabriel 'Napao' Gonzaga
Shane Carwin

Shane Carwin will be looking to cement his status as one of the top heavyweight contenders in the UFC on Saturday night when he takes on former Heavyweight title contender Gabriel Gonzaga. Carwin made his professional MMA debut in October 2005, ending the fight in the first round by submission due to strikes. He then won his next seven fights by first round stoppage and became the Ring of Fire heavyweight champion before getting his big chance and signing with the UFC. Carwin made his UFC debut on the undercard of UFC 84 against Christian Wellisch and KO’d the Hungarian in 44 seconds of the first round. Carwin followed up his impressive debut with another good performance against Neil Wain, winning by TKO in the first round.

Gabriel Gonzaga made his MMA Debut on April 4th, 2003 against Cicero Cicero. He won via submission from strikes in the first round. Gonzaga then went 4-1 fighting in his native Brazil before getting his UFC debut against Kevin Jordan at UFC 56 in a fight that was largely un-eventful until Gonzaga KO’d Jordan with a punch in the dying seconds of the third round. Gonzaga went on to win his next 2 fights in the UFC before facing Mirko Cro Cop in a fight where he was a massive underdog and was widely tipped to get KO’d by Mirko’s famed Left High Kick, ironically it was actually Gonzaga who KO’d Mirko with a spectacular leg kick of his own. This win earned Gonzaga a shot at Randy Couture’s Heavyweight title at UFC 74, a fight which Gonzaga lost via TKO. Since his title shot he’s gone 2-1 (10-3 overall) with a KO victory over Josh Hendricks in his latest fight.

Gonzaga is one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC’s heavyweight division possessing KO power in both his hands, devastating kicks & a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Bearing all of this in mind this will be by far Carwin’s biggest test of his career to date and a win here will definitely propel him to the top of the heavyweight division. Like Gonzaga, Carwin also has tremendous power in both hands. The main differences that could end up deciding the winner of this fight is either Carwin’s wrestling ability (he was an NCAA II Wrestling Heavyweight National Champion in 1999) or Gonazga’s BJJ skills. Carwin will want to try and end this fight early and will look for the KO from the sound of the first buzzer, if he fails to land any significant strikes then I can see him trying to get into a clinch with Gonzaga where he can try to do some damage by fighting on the inside (which was where Randy Couture was so successful in his fight against ‘Napao’). Gonzaga on the other hand will mix up his strikes early on, throwing combinations of punches and kicks to keep Carwin on his toes while looking for any opportunity to take the fight to the ground. If he can get Carwin on his back or even into his guard then I can possibly see Gonzaga taking a submission victory, his BJJ is excellent and we haven’t really seen enough of Carwin to judge his submission defence, which would need to be world class to stop Gonzaga. If Carwin can keep this fight standing then he has a great chance of keeping his undefeated record intact and moving one step closer to a title shot. This fight really could go either way with both men having the potential weapons to stop the other however I have a feeling that Shane Carwin will continue his impressive winning streak with another KO.

My Prediction: Shane Carwin via KO.


Quinton 'Rampage' Jackson
Keith 'The Dean of Mean' Jardine

In the main event of the evening Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson will take on Keith ‘The Dean of Mean’ Jardine in a fight that could decide the next challenger for Rashad Evans’ Light Heavyweight title. Quinton Jackson made his professional MMA debut in November 1999 winning a decision against Mike Pyle. Rampage then went 10-1 before getting his debut with leading Japanese MMA promotion PRIDE FC. Rampage was matched against Japanese superstar Kazushi Sakuraba in his first fight, who at that time was Pride's most popular Japanese fighter. Jackson lost due to a rear naked choke in the first round, but despite losing his performance caught the imaginations of Pride's fans and he was brought back for Pride 17. Rampage then went 7-1 in his next 8 fights before entering the Pride Middleweight Grand Prix, in the opening round Jackson won a split decision over tough Brazilian fighter Murilo Bustamante. Three months later, Jackson defeated UFC fighter Chuck ‘The Iceman’ Liddell in the tournament's semi-finals at Pride Final Conflict 2003 by corner stoppage, setting up a fight with the Pride Middleweight champion, Wanderlei Silva, in the tournament finals that night. In a fight that went on to become many fan’s fight of the year Jackson was stopped with a series of knees to the head 6:28 into the first round.

Rampage bounced back by winning his next two fights in Pride setting up a much anticipated re-match with the champion, Silva, at Pride 28: High Octane. Jackson started the fight impressively, knocking Silva down in the opening round and getting a takedown later on in the round which led to a series of knees and elbows. Jackson took Silva down again in the second round, but Wanderlei managed to escape to his feet and connected with some vicious knees to KO Jackson for only the second time in his career. After his two losses to Wanderlei, Jackson went 4-1 in his next few fights before signing with the UFC in 2007. His first fight was a re-match against the first guy to ever defeat him in MMA, Marvin Eastman, and Rampage avenged this loss with a KO in the second round. He then went on to fight Light Heavyweight champion Chuck Liddell for the second time at UFC 71, ending the champion’s 7 fight win streak by knocking him out cold for the first time in his career. Rampage then defended his title successfully against Dan Henderson, earning a unanimous decision after a 5 round battle at UFC 75. At this time Rampage seemed to be unstoppable and entered his second title defence against Forrest Griffin as the overwhelming favourite. Rampage started the fight strongly, hurting Griffin with his punches every time he landed, but after failing to check Griffin’s kicks, the damage began to add up and Rampage was visibly limping later in the fight which allowed Griffin to push the pace and even take the champion down. When the five rounds were up Griffin was awarded a unanimous decision with the scores 46-48, 46-48 and 46-49 handing Rampage his first loss in the UFC. Rampage’s latest fight has put him back on track after he finally got his revenge on the only man who had stopped him twice in his career, Wanderlei Silva. Their third fight took place at UFC 92 and this time it was Rampage who knocked Silva out connecting with a vicious left hook in the first round.

Keith Jardine made his professional mixed martial arts debut in August 2001, defeating Amir Rahnavardi by armbar submission. He would win five out of his next six bouts, suffering one knockout loss to Travis Wiuff. Jardine was 8-1-1 in his MMA career before appearing on The Ultimate Fighter 2, he was one of the favorites to proceed to the finals on the show, but was not selected to fight until the semi-finals, where he was defeated by eventual winner and current light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans. Despite losing on the show, Jardine was given another chance by the UFC defeating Kerry Schall by TKO due to leg kicks at The Ultimate Fighter 2 Finale. After dropping down a weight class to the light heavyweight division Jardine then went 3-2 in his next five fights before getting an opportunity to fight Chuck Liddell at UFC 76. In the biggest fight of his career to date Keith defeated ‘The Iceman’ by split decision and was in line to challenge for the UFC light heavyweight championship. However, in his subsequent fight against ‘The Axe Murderer’ Wanderlei Silva at UFC 84, Jardine got knocked out just 36 seconds into the first round after getting caught in an early exchange of punches. In his latest fight against Brandon Vera, Jardine ended up winning a split decision after a tough fight and is now once again in position to get himself into contention for a future title shot.

This fight should prove to be an interesting clash of styles; Rampage is more of a traditional striker that keeps his hands held high while looking for openings to counter his opponents, whereas Jardine is more unorthodox with his striking showing a tendency to throw his shots from awkward angles that throw his opponents off balance. He also throws some of the best leg kicks in MMA today and after seeing how effective Forrest Griffin was with his leg kicks in his fight against Rampage you can be sure that Jardine will be looking to land some of his own in this fight. In the early rounds of this fight I expect both fighters to exchange strikes to see just who has the advantage in the stand-up, if Rampage is having trouble with Jardine’s unusual strikes then I can see him going for and getting a takedown, he has some of the best slams in the UFC and if he gets a hold of Jardine then I can’t see Jardine stopping the takedown. As long as Rampage checks Jardine’s leg kicks then he should be able to control the pace of this fight and take it wherever he wants, I personally feel that Rampage’s power will be too much for Keith too handle, he has been on the end of two vicious KO’s in recent fights, and once Rampage connects then I think it will be lights out for ‘The Dean of Mean.’

My Prediction: Rampage via KO.