Thursday, 16 April 2009

UFC 97: REDEMPTION PREDICTIONS

Steve 'Robot' Cantwell
Luiz 'Banha' Cane

Luiz Cane will look to extend his recent good form on Saturday when he takes on WEC Light Heavyweight champion Steve Cantwell. Luiz made his professional MMA debut in his homeland of Brazil against Marcelo Alfaia for the Campeonato Brasileiro de Vale-Tudo promotion, the fight ended in a first round no contest. After his disappointing debut, Cane went on to amass a record of 7-0-1 before he was signed by the UFC to fight James Irvin on December 29th 2007 at UFC 79. The fight against Irvin didn’t last long as Cane was disqualified 1 minute 51 seconds into the bout for throwing an illegal knee at Irvin while he was still in downed position. After suffering his first loss, Luiz needed to get back on track at UFC 85, where his opponent was UFC veteran Jason Lambert, Cane’s intentions to the end the fight early were apparent from the start & he ended up getting the TKO mid-way through the first round to earn his first UFC victory. Looking to keep his momentum going Cane was set to face Sokoudjou at UFC 88 in a fight where he was largely considered to be the underdog, however Cane ended up surprising a lot of people as he ended the fight via TKO due to strikes with 45 seconds remaining in the second round.

Steve Cantwell made his professional MMA debut on the 23rd April 2005 against Richie Hightower at RITC 68 - Hello Glendale! Cantwell defeated Hightower by securing an armbar in the first round to successfully begin his career. Cantwell went on to acquire a 3-0 record before getting signed by the WEC to face Brian Stann at WEC 26, in this fight Steve suffered his first professional loss when he was KO’d 41 seconds into the fight. Two victories in his subsequent fights set up a re-match with Stann, who was now the WEC Light Heavyweight champion, at WEC 35. Cantwell went on to avenge his only loss after stopping Stann in the 2nd round via TKO due to punches and in the process became the WEC Light Heavyweight champion. Shortly after this fight the WEC dropped both its Light Heavyweight and Middleweight divisions, making Cantwell the final WEC Light Heavyweight champion. He was then signed by the UFC and made his debut at UFC: Fight for the Troops where he fought fellow UFC newcomer Razak Al-Hassan and earned a technical submission victory by dislocating Al-Hassan's elbow in an armbar.

This is an interesting fight as a win for Cane will push him closer to a shot at some of the elite fighters in the division, whereas a win for Cantwell will establish him as a legitimate threat in the UFC’s light heavyweight division. With Cane’s excellent striking ability, his main focus in this fight should be to keep the action on the feet where he can use his power and excellent boxing to cause Cantwell all sorts of problems. Even though Cantwell has only lost once, he did get KO’d in that fight and with the type of power Cane has, one shot should be all that is needed to end the fight. Cantwell’s strategy should be to get this fight to the ground as soon as possible, due to most of Cane’s fights ending in the first round, his ground game is still somewhat of a mystery and Cantwell will need to try to exploit this to have a chance at winning this fight. When the action starts however, I think that Cantwell may just try his luck in the stand-up in this fight and end up getting caught early by Luiz who will end up with yet another KO victory.

My Prediction: Luiz Cane via KO.

Cheick Kongo
Antoni Hardonk

In the main heavyweight bout of the evening two in-form fighters will collide when Cheick Kongo takes on Antoni Hardonk. Kongo began his professional career on June 10, 2001 by knocking out Andre Tete in the 2nd round. He then went 2-0 prior to losing a decision to Dutch fighter Rodney Faverus, after this loss Kongo went 3-0-1 in his next four fights before he fought the heavy handed Gilbert Yvel, who gave Kongo the first KO of his professional career. Kongo re-bounded from this loss by winning his next 2 fights before being signed by the UFC to fight Gilbert Aldana at UFC 61, whom he beat by TKO due to a doctor stoppage. Kongo followed up his first UFC victory with another win, this time he defeated Christian Wellisch by KO due to a knee strike. Kongo was beginning to make a name for himself in the Heavyweight division before losing to UFC newcomer Carmelo "The Fury" Marrero at UFC 64 in a fight where he was the strong favourite.

Kongo’s next fight was against Brazilian heavyweight Assuerio Silva who he defeated by majority decision at UFC 70. On September 8 2007 at UFC 75, Kongo earned the biggest victory of his career thus far when he defeated Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipović by unanimous decision. After defeating Cro Cop, Kongo looked destined for a title shot if he could win his next fight against Heath Herring at UFC 82, unfortunately for Kongo, he ended up losing by split decision. Since that loss he has won his 2 most recent fights against Dan Evensen, whom he defeated by first-round TKO, and Mustapha Al Turk, whom he also defeated via TKO in the first round.

Antoni Hardonk made his MMA debut on January 28th 2001 against Peter Verschuren, it took Hardonk just 3 minutes to win his debut via TKO. He went 2-0 before losing his next 2 fights by decision to take his career record after 4 fights to 2-2. Hardonk came back from his back-to-back losses to defeat his next two opponents, he then signed with the UFC in 2006. Hardonk made his UFC debut at UFC 65 - Bad Intentions on November 18 2006, defeating Sherman Pandergarst by technical knockout due to leg kicks. His next fight was at UFC Fight Night 9 against Justin McCully, who was a late-notice replacement for Hardonk's original opponent, Frank Mir who had to drop out due to a shoulder injury. Hardonk lost to McCully via unanimous decision.

Hardonk's next fight was against Frank Mir at UFC 74. Hardonk lost the fight due to a kimura lock early in the first round. Since losing 2 fights in a row, Hardonk has gone 3-0 in his last 3 UFC fights and a win against Kongo will put him right into the title picture.

With both fighters coming from a kick-boxing background I expect most of the fight to take place standing. It’s difficult to separate these fighters as both are extremely good technically with their stand-up games and neither really has much advantage over the other physically (both stand at 6ft 4 & tend to weigh-in between 240-245lbs). Unless one fighter decides to go for a takedown then this fight will all be decided by whoever makes a mistake with their striking, both guys possess KO power and one shot is all it will take to put the other guy out.

My Prediction: Cheick Kongo via KO.


Krzysztof 'The Polish Experiment' Soszynski
Brian 'All American' Stann

Krzysztof Soszynski will be making his UFC pay-per-view debut on Saturday when he takes on former WEC Light Heavyweight champion Brian Stann. Krzysztof made his MMA debut in 2003 against Matt Lafromboise, submitting his opponent in the first round due to strikes. Krzysztof then went 5-0 in his MMA career before picking up his first loss against Chris Tuchscherer who defeated him via decision. Krzysztof managed to win his next two fights before embarking on the worst period of his career to date, in his next 5 fights Krzysztof lost 4 and drew 1 taking his record to 7-5-1. Krzysztof continued to struggle with his fight form before putting together a 3 fight win streak prior to getting chosen to compete on season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter. Upon entering the show Krzysztof was considered one of the early favourites to win the whole thing, however after advancing to the semi-finals he eventually lost to Vinicius Magalhaes. Despite losing in the semi’s Soszynski fought on The Ultimate Fighter Finale, making his UFC debut against Shane Primm, whom he defeated by kimura.

Brian Stann made his debut in mixed martial arts on the 6th January 2006 TKO’ing his opponent Aaron Stark in the first round. Immediately after his first fight, Stann was signed by the WEC to compete in their Light Heavyweight division. Stann announced his arrival in the WEC in emphatic fashion knocking out Miguel Cosio within 16 seconds. His impressive form continued as he built a record of 5-0 earning him a shot at the WEC Light Heavyweight champion Doug Marshall on March 26, 2008. Stann kept his perfect record intact as he defeated Marshall in the first round to become the new WEC Light Heavyweight champion. Now possessing a 6-0 record with no fight going out of the first round, Stann was looking unstoppable as he tore through the WEC’s light heavyweight division. Stann’s first title defence was a re-match against Steve Cantwell who he previously KO’d in 41 seconds. Despite losing the first fight Cantwell came into the re-match looking to prove a point & managed to take Stann into the second round for the first time in his career before getting the TKO and handing Stann his first ever loss.

This fight will be Brian Stann’s UFC debut and after suffering his first loss in his last fight, he will need to make an immediate impact if he is to challenge the top of the UFC’s light heavyweight division. Krzysztof on the other hand will also want to impress and perhaps earn a re-match against TUF 8 winner Magalhaes. It will be interesting to see just how Brian’s last fight will affect him in this bout, will he still come out all guns blazing looking to end this fight early or will he take a more methodical approach and try to break Krzysztof down? Stann’s obvious strength lies in his striking, he has good power in his punches and if he can get Krzysztof to exchange with him then he has an excellent chance of ending this fight early, however if he gets taken down then this could be a long night for the former Marine. Krzysztof is well skilled in most aspects of MMA and he trains under one of the best fighters in MMA today, Dan Henderson, at Team Quest. With his well versed skills Krzysztof should be able to dictate where this fight takes place and with Stann’s suspect ground game I wouldn’t be surprised to see Krzysztof take this fight to the ground as soon as the chance presents itself and go for a submission. At the end of the night I think Krzysztof’s experience may prove too much for Stann as he earns a decision victory.

My Prediction: Krzysztof Soszynski via decision.


Chuck 'The Iceman' Liddell
Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua

In the co-main event of the evening Chuck ‘The Iceman’ Liddell will take on Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua in a fight that was first anticipated when the’ Iceman’ was on top of the UFC’s Light Heavyweight division and Shogun was on top of Pride’s Middleweight division. Chuck Liddell made his MMA debut in 1998 earning a decision victory over Noe Hernandez at UFC 17. Despite losing to Jeremy Horn in his 3rd pro fight Liddell went on to record a 10 fight win streak that included wins over the likes of Jeff Monson, Murilo Bustamante, Vitor Belfort & Renato Sobral to name a few. After his fight against Sobral, Liddell was scheduled to take on experienced wrestler and former UFC heavyweight champion Randy "The Natural" Couture at UFC 43. Couture shocked the world when he defeated Chuck at his own game, neutralizing Liddell's hooks with straight punches in the stand-up and eventually taking Chuck down at will. Couture eventually gained full mount and forced a referee stoppage due to punches in the 3rd round. After this defeat, Liddell entered the Pride 2003 Middleweight Grand Prix tournament. After defeating Alistair Overeem in the first round of the tournament, Liddell was eliminated in the next round by Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, losing by stoppage, when his corner threw in the towel.

After his brief stint in Pride, Liddell returned to the UFC to take on Tito Ortiz at UFC 47 in what was probably the most anticipated fight in MMA at the time. Prior to the fight Liddell taunted Ortiz by stating that Tito would never stand with him because he was afraid to get hit, this led to Ortiz purposefully trading with Chuck in the early rounds of the fight. This eventually led to Ortiz’s downfall as Liddell threw a flurry of punches at the beginning of the 2nd round, which knocked Ortiz down and led to a TKO victory. After this fight Liddell became a coach on The Ultimate Fighter, agreeing to a re-match with Randy Couture at the show’s Finale. On April 16, 2005 at UFC 52 Chuck Liddell avenged his loss to Randy Couture with a first round knockout victory making him the new UFC light heavyweight champion. Liddell went on to defend his title 4 times, avenging his loss to Jeremy Horn, beating Couture in a rubber match & defeating both Renato Sobral & Tito Ortiz in re-matches.

At this time Liddell was considered as one of the best light heavyweights in the world & needed to avenge 1 loss to cement his place as the no.1 guy in his division. He got his chance to avenge that loss on May 26, 2007 in a rematch with Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. Liddell was knocked down by a right hook less than two minutes into the 1st round and was unable to defend himself against Jackson's strikes on the ground, resulting in a TKO victory for Rampage and Chuck’s first loss in almost 4 years. Chuck’s next fight took place at UFC 76, where he lost a split decision to Keith Jardine, the first consecutive losses of his career. Despite these losses Chuck was determined to keep fighting and at UFC 79 he finally got a fight that he had long been waiting for when he fought Wanderlei Silva. Liddell defeated Silva via unanimous decision in what many fans and MMA critics called the best fight of the year.

After his win over Silva, Liddell fought "Sugar" Rashad Evans at UFC 88. In the second round of the fight, Evans threw an overhand right while Chuck simultaneously threw a right uppercut, Rashad connected first as Chuck’s uppercut missed Evans' face and made contact with his armpit. Liddell was out instantly as he dropped to the floor, the knockout was dubbed "knockout of the year" by many MMA fans & critics.

Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua started his career in 2003 at the Meca World Vale Tudo event in Brazil. On his debut, Rua fought Rafael Capoeira, knocking him out with a head kick in the first round. Rua went 4-0 before getting his first taste of defeat at the hands of Renato Sobral on September 6, 2003 by submission. Despite this loss Rua was immediately signed by Pride to fight at Bushido 1 against Akira Shoji winning via TKO in the first round after landing some vicious stomps, which is something that would later become on the things Shogun is best known for. Following his debut victory Shogun went on to win his next 3 Pride fights all in the 1st round before entering the Pride Middleweight Grand Prix tournament in 2005. His first opponent would be Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, whom he had challenged after Jackson won a controversial split decision over his brother, Murilo "Ninja" Rua, at Pride 29. Rampage was the heavy favourite going into the fight but Rua dominated the action from the beginning, breaking Rampage’s ribs in the process with knee strikes and ending the fight in dramatic fashion with soccer kicks to the face in the first round.

Rua's next fight in the tournament would be against the highly regarded Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, younger brother of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Once again labeled as the underdog, Rua was able to upset the odds and edge out a unanimous decision against Nogueira. On August 28, 2005, Shogun cemented his place in MMA history when he won the 2005 Grand Prix tournament by defeating Alistair Overeem and Ricardo Arona, both by TKO in the first round. Rua’s next fight was at PRIDE 31 as a Heavyweight against Mark Coleman. The fight was stopped when Rua dislocated his elbow following a takedown by Coleman in which he landed awkwardly. After suffering the 2nd loss of his career Shogun dropped back down to the light heavyweight division and put together a 4-0 win streak, it was around this time that the UFC bought out Pride and Shogun ended up signing a lucrative deal to come and fight in America with the UFC.

His UFC debut was against Forrest Griffin. Coming into the fight Shogun was widely considered as the best light heavyweight in the world and was a heavy favorite to win. After struggling to adjust to his new surroundings in the 1st round Rua became exhausted during the second round and was unable to keep pace against Griffin. With only 15 seconds remaining in the fight Griffin locked in a rear naked choke after Shogun repeatedly gave up his back and came away from the fight with a submission victory. In his 2nd and most recent UFC fight Shogun was given a rematch with Mark Coleman at UFC 93 in Dublin, Ireland. Shogun defeated Coleman via TKO with 24 seconds left in the 3rd round but looked unimpressive in victory after running out of gas in the 2nd round & failing to finish Coleman off after he himself had gassed out in the 1st round.

This fight really is make or break for both of these fighters. On the one hand you have Shogun, who is desperately trying to re-gain the form that made him one of the most feared fighters in the world just 2 years ago. On the other hand you have Chuck Liddell who is in a must-win situation if he wants to continue his fighting career and get that one last run at the title. Shogun’s style has been compromised a lot by the North American MMA Rules and he has had to make significant changes to adjust. Many consider his knees and kicks to downed opponents to be among his best weapons and without them he has struggled to look impressive in recent fights. Another factor to consider is the recent ACL surgeries that he has undergone, just how much have these surgeries affected his explosiveness? Chuck is also not quite the same fighter he once was, his chin is no longer as solid as it used to be after two brutal KO’s at the hands of Rampage and Rashad. His reflexes have also slowed with age, which has shown in recent fights with Chuck taking some shots that he may not have in his prime.

After getting each fighters weaknesses out of the way let’s analyze their strengths, Even though Shogun is unable to use his favoured stomps he still has powerful strikes & excellent knees from the clinch. One thing that I think Shogun will have to do in order to have a chance at winning this fight is to use his leg kicks, especially his low kicks. Keith Jardine showed just how effective kicks can be against Chuck and if Shogun can get the same success then he stands an excellent chance of setting up his punches for the KO or getting a decision. Chuck’s strengths have always been his ability to control where the fight takes place by using his excellent takedown defence and of course the vicious KO power he possesses in both hands. Chuck’s striking style has been criticized in recent fights, as he does have a tendency to keep his hands low and then throw looping punches. However he has been working with a professional boxing coach recently and it will be interesting to see just how this tightens up his defence. If he is to defeat Shogun he will need to keep his hands up and then take advantage of Shogun’s wild strikes by countering with his looping punches.

Onto how I think the fight will play out, I see Shogun starting this fight aggressively as he looks to make up for his lackluster performances. He may catch Chuck with a couple of strikes early on but eventually I think that Rua’s tendency to brawl may backfire on him as Chuck uses his refined striking skills to counter and catch Rua with a big punch to get the KO win.

My Prediction: Chuck Liddell via KO.


Anderson 'The Spider' Silva
Thales Leites

The main event of the evening will see pound for pound king Anderson Silva defend his Middleweight title for the 5th time when he takes on fellow Brazilian Thales Leites. Anderson Silva made his MMA debut in May 2000 fighting for the Mecca organization in Brazil. Silva lost his debut to Luiz Azeredo by split decision. After that fight, he went on a nine-fight winning streak, winning six of those fights by either submission or TKO before losing to Daiju Takase, despite being a strong underdog Takase submitted Silva with a triangle choke late in the first round. Silva went on to win his next 3 fights before returning to Pride to face Ryo Chonan, Silva looked to be in control in the 1st round after getting a take down and body triangle. Chonan was able to counter Silva's knees from the clinch, with knees, and takedowns in the 2nd round before ending the fight in the third round with a flying scissor heel hook to give Silva his 3rd loss in MMA.

After losing to Chonan, Silva fought his next 2 fights in Cage Rage, earning two victories before fighting at Rumble on the Rock 8 against Yushin Okami in the first round of the 175 lb tournament. Although Silva considered the favorite to win the tournament, he lost in the first round when he kicked Okami in the face from the guard position. Okami's knees were on the ground at the time, making the attack an illegal strike to the head of a downed opponent. After this controversial disqualification Silva went back to Cage Rage to defend the Cage Rage championship against Tony Fryklund. Silva ended the fight with a reverse elbow, knocking out Fryklund early in the first round. Shortly after this fight Silva signed a multi-fight deal with the UFC.

Silva made his anticipated debut at Ultimate Fight Night 5 on June 28, 2006 against Chris Leben. Silva wasted no time making an impression in the UFC as he knocked out Leben with a flurry of strikes, followed by a final knee strike at 49 seconds into the first round. Immediately following his debut Silva was given a shot at Rich Franklin and his Middleweight title at UFC 64. Franklin was considered the UFC’s best middleweight at the time and many people were anticipating a close fight with Franklin taking the win, however Silva had other plans as he put the champion into a Muay-Thai clinch in the 1st round before unleashing a flurry of knees which broke Franklin’s nose and put him down, making Silva the new champion due to TKO.

After winning the championship Silva went 5-0 including wins over Travis Lutter, Nate Marquardt, Rich Franklin, a unification fight against Pride champion Dan Henderson and a KO win over James Irvin in a light heavyweight bout. Silva’s most recent fight took place on October 25, 2008 at UFC 90 against Patrick Côté. In the third round, Côté landed awkwardly on his right leg while throwing a kick and fell to the mat grasping his right knee in obvious pain. The fight was stopped immediately with referee Herb Dean ruling it as a TKO victory for Silva.
Thales Leites made his mixed martial arts debut at Shooto Brazil in 2003, defeating Felipe Arinelli by arm-triangle choke submission. Leites then went on to win 8 consecutive fights to take his record to a perfect 9-0, it was around this time that Leites signed a contract with the UFC and made his debut at The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale, where he lost his first professional fight by unanimous decision to dangerous striker Martin Kampmann. Shortly after this loss Leites was given another chance by the UFC and duly re-paid their faith in his next fight at UFC 69, by defeating Pete Sell via unanimous decision.

After the Sell fight Thales went on to win his next 4 fights to take his record to an impressive 14-1. His most recent win came on the undercard of UFC 90; Leites was able to earn a rear naked choke submission victory over feared striker Drew McFedries. This win cemented Leites as the number one contender to the UFC middleweight title.
Despite being on a 9 fight win streak many people criticized Anderson Silva in his latest fight, which will only serve to motivate the champion to put things right in this bout by ending it in impressive fashion. Silva possesses a big advantage in the striking in this fight and with his long reach, will look to keep Leites out of range while looking for the KO. What Leites lacks in striking he more than makes up for in his ground game, which is one of the best in all of MMA. The only problem is that Leites doesn’t have world class wrestling skills to go along with his BJJ which may serve as a problem in this fight as he will struggle to get Anderson to the ground. If he can somehow get the fight down to the ground then he has an excellent chance at becoming the first man to defeat Silva in the UFC.

In the beginning of this fight I expect Thales to trade strikes with Anderson while trying to time Silva’s kicks before attempting a takedown. Silva will be expecting a shot from Thales early in the fight and if he goes for it too early then I can see Anderson landing a knee as Leites dives in. However if Leites is a bit more cautious with his takedown attempts then I can see Anderson picking him apart before getting a Thales into a clinch where he will finish him with knees to get the KO.

My Prediction: Anderson Silva via KO.