Thursday, 11 June 2009

UFC 99: THE COMEBACK PREDICTIONS

Mirko Cro Cop
Mostapha Al Turk

Mirko Cro Cop will make his long awaited return to the Octagon on Saturday when he takes on Mostapha Al Turk. Al Turk is a submission wrestler, who hails from Beirut, Lebanon. He trains out of London Shootfighters and was the ADCC European Champion in 2005. He recently relinquished his Cage Rage Heavyweight title and signed a four-fight deal with the UFC.
Al Turk didn’t enjoy the best of starts to his MMA career, losing 2 of his first pro fights before finally putting a 4 fight win streak together after debuting for British MMA promotion Cage Rage. The last fight in this win streak was a first round victory over Mark Kerr, former UFC & PRIDE legend. Al Turk was 2-1 in his last 2 fights for Cage Rage before signing for the UFC, his first fight in the UFC was at UFC 92 on December 27, 2008 where he lost to Cheick Kongo via TKO. Kongo dropped Al Turk with two right hands before finishing Al Turk with elbows and punches, opening up a big cut above his eye and ending the fight after 4:37 of the first round.

Mirko Filipović (better known as Mirko Cro Cop), is a Croatian law enforcement officer turned kickboxer and mixed martial artist. His nickname, short for "Croatian Cop", comes from his membership in Croatia's most elite Anti-Terrorist Unit ATJ Lučko.

Cro Cop started his professional career in 1996 as a kickboxer accumulating an amateur record of 40-5 (31 KO's). In 1996, at the age of 21, Cro Cop entered the K-1 World Grand Prix elimination tournament. After defeating the previous year's finalist, Jérôme Le Banner, he was stopped in the next round by Ernesto Hoost. Cro Cop continued building a successful K-1 career with wins over some top ranked opponents including Peter Aerts, Mark Hunt and Remy Bonjasky. He was also the first fighter to beat then-undefeated giant, Bob Sapp in just 86 seconds, breaking Sapp's orbital bone with a left punch. In 2001, Mirko began his switch to fighting in PRIDE, citing personal challenge, as well as dissatisfaction with K-1 salaries. A year later, he also left his job at the anti-terrorist unit in order to focus fully on his martial arts career. In just 2 years Cro Cop compiled an impressive 7-0-2 record in PRIDE taking on some impressive opposition in the form of Wanderlei Silva, Heath Herring & Igor Vovchanchyn. His performances in these fights earned him a shot at then interim heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Cro Cop’s stand-up was effective in the first round, controlling the fight from his feet. However, Nogueira prevailed in the second round after a successful takedown, led to an armbar forcing the tap. After an upset to Kevin Randleman, which he later avenged, Cro Cop put together another 7 fight win streak to set-up one of the most anticipated Heavyweight fights in MMA history against Fedor Emelianenko for the heavyweight title at Pride Final Conflict 2005.

After three rounds, Fedor won by unanimous decision and retained his title. Mirko later stated on Croatian national television that he came exhausted to the match, mostly because he was not used to the time difference in Japan and he had sleeping problems. He also said many times after the match that he fought too defensively and cautiously. The champion, likewise, was not in his top form. According to Fedor he "could not take full advantage of right hand during the striking exchanges and had to try to close the distance," due to a previous hand injury. After this fight Cro Cop was 1-1 before competing in Pride's 2006 Open-Weight Grand Prix, he went on to win the tournament in impressive fashion KO’ing Wanderlei Silva in the semi-finals with his trademark left high kick before defeating Josh Barnett in the final to become the Open-Weight Grand Prix champion. After the Grand Prix, Cro Cop signed a 2 year 6 fight deal with the UFC. After a lot of hype, Mirko failed to deliver in his first 3 UFC fights winning his debut before losing his next 2 bouts to Gabriel Gonzaga & Cheick Kongo. It was at this time that the UFC agreed to let Cro Cop fight in Japan where he went 2-0-1 before finally bringing him back to face Al Turk.

This is a massive fight for Cro Cop as another lackluster performance here will surely put big question marks over his future in the UFC and as one of the top heavyweights in MMA. He has been quoted as saying that he finally feels close to 100% after having surgery to fix some long standing injuries and he will surely want to prove to his fans that he still has what it takes to be a force in the Heavyweight division. Even though he is considered a heavy underdog in this fight Al Turk does have the potential to cause Mirko problems and if he gets in close and clinches with Cro Cop he could work for the takedown and use his wrestling to try to control the Croatian. Cro Cop’s strategy should be pretty straight-forward for this fight, he will look to keep Al Turk at distance while mixing up his kicks & punches while using his excellent sprawl to stuff any takedown attempts from Al Turk. As long as Cro Cop sticks to his strengths this match should provide him with the stepping stone he needs to get back into the heavyweight mix.

My Prediction: Mirko Cro Cop via KO.


Spencer 'The King' Fisher
Caol Uno

Caol Uno will be making his first appearance in the UFC for almost 6 years when he takes on the always game Spencer Fisher. Early in his career Caol Uno was a runner-up in the submission wrestling world championships at ADCC losing in the finals to world-renowned Jean Jacques Machado. When he began his MMA career he rose through the ranks of the Shooto mixed martial arts organization in Japan. After compiling a record of 14-3-2, Uno was recruited to fight for the UFC's lightweight title against Jens Pulver. Throughout the fight, Pulver stopped Uno's takedown attempts and pressed the action on the feet. Uno grew increasingly frustrated as Pulver neutralized all his offensive efforts and ended up taking a unanimous decision victory.

After Pulver left the UFC, the lightweight title was vacated and a tournament was put together with the top lightweights in the UFC facing off. In the first round, Uno fought Din Thomas. Thomas dominated the first round, setting a high pace. However Uno came back strong to win the second and third rounds and get the victory. In the finals of the tournament, Uno faced BJ Penn (who had previously defeated Uno by knockout in under 12 seconds at UFC 34). Uno used angles, and effective wrestling techniques to frustrate Penn, who appeared tentative from the start. Penn was dominant in spurts, and the fight was called a draw. This judges' decision was a disaster for the UFC management. As a result the lightweight division was temporarily abolished. Uno then went on to fight in Shooto before fighting at K-1's 2004 Premium Dynamite!! and K-1 MAX - Japan Grand Prix 2005. His next eleven fights were for the then newly established promotion HERO'S. During this time Uno’s record improved to 26-10-4. After his contract with HERO’s ended Uno then signed with DREAM to take part in their Lightweight Grand Prix. He defeated Mitsuhiro Ishida by rear naked choke in the 2nd round to progress to the final round against Shinya Aoki. At DREAM.5, Uno lost a unanimous decision to Aoki after 2 rounds of action.

Spencer Fisher fights out of the Miletich Fighting Systems camp and made his UFC debut at Ultimate Fight Night 2, scoring a second-round submission victory over Thiago Alves. He then defeated Aaron Riley in his next fight by TKO in the first round. Fisher was undefeated in the UFC before taking on Sam Stout on the undercard of UFC 58. Fisher took the fight on very late notice, reportedly cutting 20lbs in the final two days leading up to the match. Although Fisher seemed to land harder punches, Stout landed more, and came away with a controversial split decision. Fisher returned at UFC 60 against Matt Wiman and won by TKO in the second round, hitting Wiman with a flying knee that forced a stop the bout. Fisher was able to record another first round TKO at UFC 64 against Dan Lauzon. However his win streak came to a halt at Ultimate Fight Night 8, where he was defeated by Hermes Franca in round two via TKO (strikes).

At UFC 58 Fisher defeated Sam Stout in a re-match by unanimous decision. His next fight was a loss to Frankie Edgar by unanimous decision at UFC 78. Since this loss Fisher has put together 2 wins and will be looking to extend this streak when he takes on the returning UFC veteran Caol Uno.

Spencer Fisher is one of the most dangerous fighters in the lightweight division and will provide Uno with a real test on his return to the Octagon. Both fighters have solid overall skills however I would give a slight edge to Fisher in the stand-up & an advantage to Uno in the grappling. Due to his superior skills in the striking I expect Fisher to keep Uno at a distance while he uses his combinations to put Uno off his game, Caol has shown a suspect chin in past fights & if Spencer can land a solid shot then it could be all over. Uno will want to look to close the distance early and use his excellent grappling to get the fight to the ground, which is where he is most dangerous, if he can get Fisher down then he may go on to dominate the action however after being away for so long, will Uno be too eager to impress? If he gets careless then Fisher will not hesitate to make the veteran pay.

My Prediction: Spencer Fisher via TKO.


Marcus 'The Irish Hand Grenade' Davis
Dan 'The Outlaw' Hardy

In what is shaping up to be a real grudge match ‘The Irish Hand Grenade’ Marcus Davis will be looking to put an end to ‘The Outlaw’ Dan Hardy’s undefeated UFC streak. Before starting his MMA career Marcus Davis began boxing at 14 & turned pro at the age of 19 with a second round TKO of Luis Guzman in April 1993. He compiled a professional record of 17-1-2 over the next seven years on the New England circuit. In his last fight as a boxer, he suffered a TKO loss to 34 year old Ed Bryant which made him reconsider his future as a successful boxer. This led to Davis entering professional MMA on August 22, 2003 with a first round TKO of Shaun Gay. In 2005, Marcus was a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter 2. He fought eventual winner of the show Joe Stevenson in what proved to be a mismatch, as Davis was quickly taken down and submitted. Marcus returned to fight on the undercard of the finale, where he lost to Melvin Guillard.

Following the series, Davis strongly considered retirement but recuperated from a shoulder injury picked up against Joe Stevenson and went back to MMA training. His decision proved to be the correct one as he came back to record 11 consecutive victories before suffering a loss against Mike Swick at UFC 85 by unanimous decision. He got back to winning ways with a submission victory over England's Paul Kelly at UFC 89 and a split decision victory over Chris Lytle at UFC 93. He will now fight Dan Hardy at UFC 99 in a fight that has been getting more and more heated. The fight began getting personal when Davis started fighting in the UK against English fighters defeating them all & beginning to build a fan base. Hardy stated it was his home and he did not want Davis in it. Hardy later started insulting Davis calling him a fake Irishmen and saying his website looked like a St. Patrick's day parade blew up. Then on an underground mma site, Hardy asked fans to post photo shopped pictures of Davis in a homosexual fashion. The pictures upset Davis causing him to confront Hardy at a UFC 99 press conferences.

Dan Hardy began his martial arts training in Tae Kwon Do when he was six years old before switching to Thai boxing a few years later stating that he wanted real fights. Hardy competed in amateur MMA tournaments until his professional debut in 2004, which he lost via rear naked choke. This loss seemed to motivate Hardy to work even harder as he went on to build an impressive record of 19-6-0-1 before making his UFC debut at UFC 89, defeating Akihiro Gono via Split Decision. Gono was left swollen and bloody by several of Hardy's left hooks. In the third round Gono pushed Hardy to the canvas, and while there landed an illegal knee to the face of the downed fighter. This caused the fight to be stopped for a lengthy period. Hardy recovered and went on to win the split decision. The judges saw the bout 29-28 (twice) for Hardy, and 29-28 for Gono.

In his 2nd UFC fight Hardy beat Rory Markham at UFC 95 in the first round by KO with a clean counter left hook. A follow-up shot on the mat brought in Kevin Mulhall to stop the fight. In his post-fight interview, Hardy retorted to Markham's pre-fight accusation that he had weak hands by exclaiming to the ecstatic crowd, "No punching power? What do you have to say about that?” Hardy has spent time training at both Xtreme Couture and the Wildcard Boxing Gym. He received his Blue Belt in Brazilian Ju-Jitsu from Eddie Bravo and currently trains out of the Rough House Gym.

This fight should provide fireworks from the start, the trash talking that started a few months back has only motivated Davis even more and he will be looking to shut Hardy up for good on Saturday night. Now this could either work to Davis’ advantage to or it could lead to his downfall, the good thing is that he will be extremely motivated and should come into the fight in great shape, however with all the stuff that Hardy has been saying about him, will this cause Davis to forget his strategy & go head-hunting for the KO? Hardy knows that he’s got under Davis’ skin and he will look to play on this even more during the fight, if he can get Marcus to get off his game plan then he may just pull off the victory. However if Marcus can keep his head and use a similar strategy to his last fight against Chris Lytle then he should be able to out-strike the Englishman. In saying that Hardy’s striking is no joke and if he connects then he could put Marcus to sleep, I think the result of this fight all rests on how Marcus Davis approaches the bout, if he stays calm and sticks to his game plan then I think he’ll take the victory however if he goes after Hardy looking for a quick knockout then I can see Dan countering & showing his power once again to get the KO.

My Prediction: Marcus Davis via KO.


Mike 'Quick' Swick
Ben 'Killa B' Saunders

Undefeated welterweight prospect Ben Saunders will take on Mike ‘Quick’ Swick in what is sure to be an exciting Welterweight bout. Ben Saunders made his MMA debut in 2004 fighting to a draw against Crafton Wallace at Absolute Fighting Championships 8. He put together a 4-0-2 professional record before being invited to compete on The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra. Saunders defeated Dan Barrera in the first round of the competition by split decision before being eliminated in the quarterfinals by Tommy Speer via decision. He fought Barrera again at The Ultimate Fighter Finale defeating him once again, this time by unanimous decision.

In his second UFC fight, Saunders defeated UFC newcomer Ryan Thomas by arm bar in the second round. After this win he fought Brandon Wolff, defeating him in the first round with some impressive knees from the Thai clinch.

Mike Swick made his MMA debut in November 1998 earning a submission victory over Victor Bell in the 1st round, he went on to amass a 5-1 record before becoming a contestant on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter. He was eliminated from the competition after a semi-final loss to Stephan Bonnar. At The Ultimate Fighter finale, Swick defeated Alex Schoenauer by knockout 20 seconds into the first round, earning the nickname "Quick" from UFC announcer Mike Goldberg. Since then he has lived up to his nickname by defeating Gideon Ray via KO in just 22 seconds, Steve Vigneault via submission at 2:09 of the 1st round and Joe Riggs via submission at 2:19 in the 1st. Swick's first UFC defeat came at UFC 69, losing by unanimous decision to Yushin Okami. He had Okami rattled in the the second round, but ultimately succumbed to Okami's superior wrestling and physical presence, as he was took down comfortably and suffered an onslaught of ground and pound for the majority of the fight. Since this loss Swick has gone 3-0 with his latest win being a 33 second KO of Jonathan Goulet.

This fight definitely has the potential to steal the show, Swick will be looking for an impressive victory to back up his title shot credentials & Ben Saunders will need a win to start fulfilling his potential as a contender in the Welterweight division. This will be an interesting clash of styles and with both fighters tending to prefer the stand-up game I can’t really see either of them going for a takedown. This means that we will get to see just who possesses the better striking skills, Saunders will look to use his reach advantage and clinch game to wear Swick down, while Swick will look to use his speed to beat Saunders to the punch before moving out of range. Saunders has improved considerably since The Ultimate Fighter and training with American Top Team has brought his game to another level, this fight will prove whether he has what it takes to rise up the welterweight division and take on the elite fighters. I can see Swick struggling to deal with Saunders’ height & reach throughout this fight leading to him getting frustrated, which will then leave holes in his defence for Saunders to expose and get the KO.

My Prediction: Ben Saunders via KO.


Cheick Kongo
Cain Velasquez

In the co-main event of the evening we will see two top heavyweight fighters collide in a fight that could well decide the next challenger for the heavyweight title. Cheick Kongo began training in martial arts when he was 5 years old, taking up Kendo and Karate. As he grew older, he learned to master Muay Thai and kickboxing and would also practice Greco-Roman wrestling. Kongo began his professional career in June 2001 by knocking out Andre Tete. He then followed up that win with a TKO over Dave van der Veen before losing his first professional MMA fight to Rodney Faverus by decision. Kongo was 7-2-1 before competing in the UFC against Gilbert Aldana at UFC 61, whom he went on to defeat by TKO due to a doctor stoppage. He followed up his successful debut with another win, this time over UFC newcomer Christian Wellisch by KO due to a knee strike, before losing to UFC newcomer Carmelo "The Fury" Marrero at UFC 64.

Kongo bounced back from his first UFC loss with 2 wins including an impressive victory over Mirko Cro Cop before losing a split decision to veteran fighter Heath Herring at UFC 82. He has since put together a 3 fight win streak with his most recent victory coming at UFC 97 against Mostapha Al Turk; Kongo dropped Al Turk with two right hands before attacking him with elbows and punches on the ground, opening up a big cut above the Al Turk’s eye. Referee Steve Mazzagatti stopped the fight after 4:37 of the first round.

Cain Velasquez is a former 2-Time All-American collegiate wrestler from Arizona State and a Junior College National Champ at Iowa Central Community College. He made his professional MMA debut in October 2006 against Jesse Fujarczyk on the Strikeforce: Tank vs. Buentello card, Cain stopped his opponent in just under 2 minutes via TKO due to punches. He followed up his successful debut with another 1st round TKO victory this time over Jeremiah Constant before being signed by the UFC to fight on their UFC 83 card against Brad Morris. Cain kept up his 1st round knockout streak as he stopped Morris just after 2 minutes into the bout. His next fight came against UFC veteran Jake O’Brien, in what was expected to be a tough test for Velasquez turned out to be a relatively easy fight which Cain ended in impressive fashion with another 1st round TKO. Cain’s latest fight was against Denis Stojnić at UFC Fight Night 17. The fight was stopped in round two with Velasquez earning the victory improving his professional record to a perfect 5-0 with 5 KO’s.

This should be another exciting stand-up battle between two of the best strikers in the division. Kongo is an excellent kick boxer and has worked extensively on his ground skills with the guys from the Wolfslair Gym, although I have a feeling he won’t need to use his ground skills much in this fight. Cain Velasquez has been on a tear since making his debut in the UFC with many people tipping him as a future champion. A win against Kongo will definitely back those claims up and put him into contention for a shot at the winner of Lesnar vs. Mir. With both fighters possessing KO power in either hand, one shot will be all it takes to end this bout and I can’t see this fight going the distance. Look for Kongo to use his leg kicks to keep Cain at bay while he tries to use his reach to out-point the American, Cain meanwhile will look to use his wrestling to get in close before unloading his strikes attempting to land a clean shot to put Kongo away.

My Prediction: Cain Velasquez via KO.


Rich 'Ace' Franklin
Wanderlei 'The Axe Murderer' Silva

In the main event of the evening Rich Franklin will take on Wanderlei Silva in a 195lbs catch-weight bout. Rich "Ace" Franklin made his MMA debut in March 2000 and amassed a record of 17 wins and 1 loss before fighting for the UFC title. His sole loss was against the undefeated Lyoto Machida by TKO in the second round. In the run up to the title match, he defeated such well-respected fighters as Evan Tanner, Jorge Rivera, Edwin Dewees, Ken Shamrock, Jason MacDonald, and David Loiseau. Before his fight with Shamrock, Franklin signed an 8-fight contract with the UFC and in 2005, he defeated Evan Tanner for the second time to win the UFC Middleweight Championship.

In his first title defence at UFC 56, Franklin KO’d Nate Quarry, a competitor from season 1 of The Ultimate Fighter in the 1st round. He then defeated David Loiseau in a unanimous five round decision to retain his title once again at UFC 58. Franklin broke his left hand early on in the second round of this fight, which led to him having surgery and put him out of action for seven months. On his return Franklin lost his title to Anderson Silva in the main event of UFC 64. The fight was stopped at 2:49 of the first round after Franklin received a knee to the face which dropped him. On October 19, 2006 Franklin underwent surgery due to the nasal fracture he received in his fight against Silva. Rich went on to win his next two fights to set up a re-match with Silva at UFC 77, in what turned out to be an extended version of their first fight Silva defeated Franklin by TKO (Strikes) in the second round. Franklin defeated Travis Lutter in his next fight before moving up to the light heavyweight division defeating Matt Hamill by TKO with a kick to the liver at UFC 88. His latest fight was against former PRIDE 183 lbs and 205 lbs champion Dan Henderson at UFC 93 on January 17, 2009 in Dublin, Ireland. He lost the fight in a controversial split decision in a very evenly contested bout.

Wanderlei Silva's first professional match was on November 1, 1996, in the Brazilian Vale Tudo Fighting organization (BVF), where he knocked out Dilson Filho with punches at BVF 6. He fought in one other match in BVF against Marcelao, who submitted due to a shoulder injury. His aggressive style is rooted in street brawling, refined with elements of Muay Thai and kickboxing. Silva was 5-1 before entering the Ultimate Fighting Championship on October 16, 1998, at UFC Brazil: Ultimate Brazil, in a match against Vitor Belfort. This fight has arguably been Silva's worst defeat in his career, lasting only 44 seconds and ending with Silva being knocked down by Belfort's punches before a referee stoppage. Silva won his next UFC match at UFC 20 where he knocked out Tony Petarra with knees. On April 14, 2000, Silva was given a chance to fight for the UFC light heavyweight championship, but lost via decision to Tito Ortiz.

After this loss Silva debuted in PRIDE on September 12, 1999, winning against Carl Malenko by decision. From 1999 to 2004, Silva won eighteen-straight fights in Pride, excluding a draw against Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (under slightly modified rules) and a no contest against Gilbert Yvel (Silva accidentally kicked Yvel in the groin), giving him a twenty-fight unbeaten streak. Silva's reputation as a formidable MMA fighter grew as he developed a successful 5 year win record in the middle weight division(205 lbs). Silva's 5-year undefeated streak came to an end when he fought Mark Hunt at the Pride Shockwave 2004 event. Hunt won the non-title match by split decision however Hunt's weight of 280 lb (125 kg) as well as Silva's performance in rounds two and three caused many people to express their disagreement with the judges decision. Silva also took this fight on two days notice. Silva went 4-3 in his last 7 fights for PRIDE with 2 brutal KO losses to Mirko Cro Cop & Dan Henderson.

On December 29 2007 Silva made his long awaited UFC debut in a much anticipated fight against Chuck Liddell, Silva ended up losing to Liddell by unanimous decision. After the fight Silva promised that next time he would deliver a win after losing his last 3 fights. True to his word, on May 24, 2008 at UFC 84, Silva KO’d Keith Jardine in just 36 seconds. In his most recent fight Silva fought Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, who he beat twice previously. Jackson avenged his previous defeats by knocking Silva out with a left hook in the first round.

With both fighters coming off of losses in their last bouts, they will both be extremely motivated to get their careers back on track on Saturday. Wanderlei is looking to use this bout to set-up a possible fight with Anderson Silva in the near future and he will need to stop Franklin in impressive fashion to send a message to the champ. Franklin however will be looking to win to set-up a run at the light heavyweight division and likewise an impressive win will certainly send a message to the light heavyweights in the division. This match-up provides an interesting clash of styles, Franklin is the more technical fighter who will look to methodically out-strike Silva & counter his wild strikes. Silva however, will come out aggressive from the start and pressure Franklin with his looping punches. As we’ve seen throughout the years of watching Silva fight his style has distinct advantages & disadvantages, the advantages are that when his strikes connect he usually puts his opponents to sleep, however when he misses one of those big shots he is wide open to counters and this has gotten him KO’d on a few occasions. Despite this Silva will not change his style at this point in his career and he has stated numerous times in the build-up to this fight that there are only 2 outcomes either he will KO Franklin or he’ll get KO’d himself. Franklin’s strategy in this fight is pretty straight-forward he should avoid any brawling with Silva and stay out of the clinch, which is one area that he has shown a significant weakness. If he manages to do this then he stands a good chance at taking a decision. Silva on the other hand should make Rich fight his fight & use the blueprint that Anderson Silva laid out by attempting to get the muay-thai clinch where he can then use his devastating knees to end Franklin’s night early. This fight has the potential to be a classic and we are sure to see a war no matter what the outcome is.

My Prediction: Wanderlei Silva via KO.