Friday, 7 May 2010

UFC 113: MACHIDA VS. SHOGUN 2 PREDICTIONS

Patrick 'The Predator' Côté
Alan 'The Talent' Belcher

In the first televised bout of the evening Patrick Côté will return to his hometown to take on Alan Belcher. Côté began his career in TKO, where he went undefeated with five wins and captured the TKO Light Heavyweight Championship. His big break came after Guy Mezger pulled out of the main event fight with Tito Ortiz at UFC 50 due to injury. Côté, with just four days notice, was set to face Ortiz. Côté lost by unanimous decision but still impressed by not being submitted or knocked out by Ortiz and displaying a toughness and willingness to take the fight on short notice.

He did not win at a UFC pay-per-view until UFC 67. In 2006, Côté joined the competition at The Ultimate Fighter 4 in the middleweight tournament, and finally won his first UFC match over Jorge Rivera. He advanced to the semifinals – where he defeated Edwin Dewees – and proceeded to the finale, where he lost by first round submission to Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter Travis Lutter. With the loss to Lutter factored in and none of The Ultimate Fighter exhibition bouts included, Côté's official UFC record fell to 0-4. Côté earned his first win in the UFC at UFC 67, defeating TUF4 teammate Scott Smith by unanimous decision. Côté made a return to TKO during the summer of 2007 to defeat Jason Day for the TKO middleweight title. He returned to the UFC and defeated up and comer and TUF season 3 winner Kendall Grove at UFC 74 by KO (punches) in the first round. Following his UFC 74 victory Côté fought Drew McFedries at UFC Fight Night on January 23 and won again via a first round TKO after catching McFedries with a counter punch. Côté extended his UFC win streak to four fights at UFC 86 by defeating Ricardo Almeida via split decision, also earning him an upcoming title shot.

Côté next fought Anderson Silva at UFC 90 for the Middleweight Championship, on October 25, 2008, the UFC's first event in Illinois. In the third round, Côté landed awkwardly on his right leg while throwing a kick and fell to the mat grasping his right knee and in obvious pain. Referee Herb Dean declared the fight over when Côté could not continue, ruling the bout a TKO victory for Silva. Côté, however, became the first of Silva's UFC opponents to make it into the third round.

Alan Belcher made his professional MMA debut in July 2004 against Tim Ellis in Freestyle Fighting Championship winning via TKO. His MMA career then picked up significantly in early 2006, as he amassed a record of 8-1. His only loss in 2006 came at the hands of Yushin Okami at UFC 62. Belcher took the fight on two-weeks notice after David Terrell pulled out of the fight. Belcher returned to the UFC three months later against Jorge Santiago winning by knockout due to a head kick in the 3rd round.

At UFC 69, Belcher suffered his 2nd loss in the UFC to Kendall Grove. Despite this loss Belcher fought again just one month later, defeating Sean Salmon at UFC 71 with a guillotine choke at 53 seconds of the first round. Belcher then defeated Kalib Starnes at UFC 77 on October 20, 2007. After controlling the fight with punches and knees from the clinch, the fight was eventually stopped in favor of Belcher due to a large gash over Starnes' right eye. Belcher lost his next fight to Jason Doom after getting TKO’d in the first round, after this loss he went on a 2 fight win streak over Ed Herman and Denis Kang. Belcher then lost a split decision to UFC newcomer, well regarded middleweight Yoshihiro Akiyama, at UFC 100. Belcher rebounded by defeating Wilson Gouveia on December 12, 2009, at UFC 107 by TKO due to punches. During the fight, Belcher displayed a good chin and precise punches.

This will be Côté’s first fight in over a year and a half and Belcher will prove to be a tough test for the Canadian. Both of these fighters like to stand & trade strikes so I’m not expecting much of this fight to take place on the ground. Côté has an elusive style and likes to jump in, throw his combinations and then jump back out of range, this style has worked well for him in the past & I don’t see him changing it too much for this fight. Belcher is also a very good striker, with a solid chin & good muay-thai base, despite this I think that Belcher would be better off taking Côté to the ground where I think Alan holds the advantage. I doubt Belcher will take the fight to the ground straight away, however if he isn’t having any success on the feet then I think he should attempt to get the takedown & work for the submission, which is an area that Côté has shown a weakness in the past. With Côté‘s power and his elusiveness I can see him taking the W in this fight, as long as his ring rust doesn’t affect him too much, I think that Côté’s speed advantage will enable him to land his strikes and out-point the slower Belcher.

My Prediction: Patrick Côté via decision.


Kimbo Slice
Matt Mitrione

Kimbo Slice will make his PPV debut for the UFC when he takes on Matt Mitrione in a heavyweight battle. Slice made his MMA debut against former WBO Heavyweight champion Ray Mercer. The match was scheduled as a three-round exhibition utilizing all professional rules of MMA combat. Slice defeated Mercer with a guillotine choke at 1:12 into the first round. On October 11, 2007, ProElite announced that they had signed Slice to a deal and that he would make his debut on the November 10, 2007 EliteXC. He was originally set to make his professional MMA debut against Mike Bourke, a reformed street fighter, but a shoulder injury from Bourke led him to face Bo Cantrell. Kimbo defeated Cantrell 19 seconds into the first round by submission due to strikes.

On February 16, 2008, Kimbo fought Tank Abbott in the main event at EliteXC: Street Certified. He won by KO 43 seconds into the first round due to strikes. On May 31, 2008, Kimbo fought in the main event of the first ever mixed martial arts event shown on prime time network television, EliteXC: Primetime. Though one of the judges had each fighter winning one of the first two rounds, Kimbo's opponent James Thompson won both on total points by repeatedly taking down Slice and grounding and pounding. In the opening seconds of the third round, however, Kimbo threw a haymaker to Thompson's left ear, which ruptured Thompson's cauliflower. This was soon followed by three unanswered punches to a standing Thompson, which led to a referee stoppage and the controversial win for Slice. On October 4, 2008, a Kimbo Slice vs. Ken Shamrock fight was supposed to take place as part of CBS' Saturday Night Fights. However, Shamrock received a cut to the left eye during a warm-up only hours before the fight was to take place. This left the head of fight operations, Jeremy Lappen, to choose Seth Petruzelli as a replacement. Slice agreed to take the fight after receiving a raise in pay, and took in $500,000. Petruzelli defeated Slice by TKO 14 seconds into the first round of the bout.

After leaving EliteXC, Kimbo took part in The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights. In his first fight of the show, Kimbo was defeated by Roy Nelson via TKO stoppage in the second round after repeated punches to the head in the crucifix position. Kimbo would go on to refuse the opportunity to take Matt Mitrione's place in the quarter finals after it was revealed that he had arthritis in his knee. Slice fought Houston Alexander on December 5, 2009, at The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale at a catchweight of 215 pounds. In a fight that many thought would not leave the first round, Alexander would instead spend most of the first and third rounds circling Slice tentatively with little engagement. In the second round, however, Slice landed a back suplex on Alexander, which very well may have tipped the judges' scorecards in his favor. Slice would win the bout by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) and Alexander would be cut from the promotion only days later.

Matt Mitrione appeared on the tenth season of The Ultimate Fighter without any professional MMA fights. After being picked second to last by Evans, Mitrione fought and defeated Scott Junk via majority (19–19, 20–18 and 20–18) decision, moving him on to the quarter finals. He outfought Junk, utilizing his significant reach and height advantage. Mitrione caused some problems for Evans by challenging teammate Jon Madsen to a fight after hearing how Madsen wanted to "slap" him. There was a heated exchange of words between Mitrione and Evans in episode seven. Following Mitrione's fight with Junk, Mitrione complained about migraines and dizziness, causing many of the cast members thought that Mitrione may bow out of the competition to give Kimbo Slice a second opportunity. Much to the dismay of everyone, including Dana White, Mitrione did fight and was eliminated by teammate James McSweeney in the quarterfinals, losing via guillotine choke. Mitrione made his professional MMA debut at The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale defeating Marcus Jones via knockout early in the second round.

After a disappointing performance in his last fight, Kimbo will want to make a statement in this fight. Mitrione has some power in his strikes, however I think that Kimbo’s technique is better, if he is able to avoid Matt’s power in the early rounds I think eventually Matt will tire and Kimbo will catch him with his superior combinations before putting him away. Matt does have a punchers chance in this fight; however I think that Kimbo is the more well rounded fighter & has more tools to win this fight.

My Prediction: Kimbo Slice via TKO.


Sam 'Hands of Stone' Stout
Jeremy 'Lil Heathen' Stephens

Sam Stout will look to build on his recent momentum when he takes on Jeremy Stephens in the lightweight division. Sam Stout had a mixed start to his professional career losing his debut to Jay Estrada before getting a draw in his next fight. After this he went on an 8 fight win streak before getting signed by the UFC where he made his debut at lightweight at UFC 58: USA vs. Canada. Although Stout was originally scheduled to face Kenny Florian at UFC 58, Florian withdraw from the bout due to a back injury. On short notice, Spencer Fisher agreed to substitute for the injured Florian. Stout and Fisher fought a three-round bout with Stout winning the split decision. Stout succumbed to a rear naked choke submission in his next fight at the hands of Kenny Florian during The Ultimate Fighter 3 finale on June 24, 2006. Following his loss to Kenny Florian, Stout beat Jay Estrada by armbar, avenging his first professional loss. In February 2007, Stout defeated Brazilian submission grappler Fabio Holanda to defend his TKO World Lightweight Championship.

In Stout's return to the UFC at UFC Fight Night 10, he was defeated by Spencer Fisher via unanimous decision. Later, at UFC 80, he defeated Per Eklund from Sweden, by unanimous decision. Stout lost by split decision to Rich Clementi at UFC 83 in Montreal, Canada. The scores were 29–27 Clementi, 29–28 Stout, and 29–28 Clementi. At UFC 89, Sam Stout was defeated by Terry Etim via unanimous decision. Combining precise kicks with fast hands and a precise jab, Etim controlled Stout through the duration of the fight, only having to fend off sporadic and often desperate bursts from the Canadian in reply. Stout then fought Matt Wiman at UFC 97, earning a close win by 29–28, 29–28, 29–28 unanimous decision after hurting Wiman with a brutal liver shot the fight won Fight of the Night. Stout defeated Joe Lauzon by unanimous decision on January 2, 2010 at UFC 108. The fight earned Fight of the Night, giving Stout his fourth FOTN.

Jeremy Stephens made his pro debut in 2005 & put together a very impressive 12-1 record that earned him a UFC contract. Stephens was defeated in his UFC debut against UFC veteran Din Thomas at UFC 71 on May 26, 2007. His first win in the UFC was against Diego Saraiva at UFC 76 by unanimous decision. Jeremy then scored his second win inside the Octagon after beating TUF 5 alumni Cole Miller at UFC Fight Night 12. At the finale of The Ultimate Fighter 7, Jeremy took on former trainer and friend Spencer Fisher. Stephens lost by unanimous decision.

Joe Lauzon was scheduled to fight Hermes Franca on February 7 in the main event for UFC Fight Night 17. However, Franca pulled out of the event with a torn anterior crucial ligament in his right knee. Jeremy Stephens stepped in as a late replacement for Franca. Lauzon defeated Stephens with an armbar in the second round. At UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann he lost a unanimous decision to Gleison Tibau. Stephens returned to the octagon September 16, 2009 at UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Guillard. Originally set to fight Brazilian UFC newcomer Ronnys Torres, an injury Torres sustained during training meant he was replaced by Justin Buchholz. Stephens defeated Buchholz after landing several big strikes and opening up a deep gash on Buchholz's forehead, forcing the doctor to stop the fight midway through the first round.

Stout looked extremely impressive in his last fight against Joe Lauzon, who actually defeated his opponent tonight, Jeremy Stephens. Stephens has big power in his strikes and his confidence should be high after he snapped his 2 fight losing streak with a TKO victory in his last fight. Look for Stephens to try to keep the fight standing where he will be looking to land that big shot, if he connects then I don’t think Stout will be able to stand up to the power, so he will need to be wary. Stout will be looking to stay out of range & counter Stephens power punches as he is the much more technical striker in this fight. Stout may also look for an opening to take the fight to the ground, if he is able to get Stephens down then I think that he should be able to control him & use his ground and pound to get the win.

My Prediction: Sam Stout via TKO.


Paul 'Semtex' Daley
Josh 'Kos' Koscheck

In the co-main event of the evening Paul Daley will take on Josh Koscheck in a fight that could very well decide Georges St-Pierre’s next challenger. Josh Koscheck began his professional mixed martial arts career in 2004, compiling victories over Cruz Chacon and Luke Cummo. In 2005, Koscheck appeared on The Ultimate Fighter & was selected to compete in the middleweight division, he advanced to the semi-finals by defeating Chris Leben however, Koscheck lost the semi’s by split-decision to Diego Sanchez. Although he didn't proceed to the final round, Koscheck was featured on the undercard of the live season finale on Spike TV, where he made his official UFC debut by defeating Christopher Sanford by knockout. Koscheck went on to defeat Pete Spratt in his next fight before losing to Drew Fickett at Ultimate Fight Night 2.
Koscheck rebounded from this loss by winning his next 5 fights to set up a fight against Georges St-Pierre at UFC 74. St-Pierre ended Josh’s win streak when he scored a unanimous decision victory. Josh made his return at UFC 82, defeating Dustin Hazelett by TKO due to strikes at in the 2nd round. He won his next fight, against Chris Lytle at UFC 86 by unanimous decision.

Koscheck then agreed to step in and fight Thiago Alves at UFC 90 on just 2 weeks notice, he lost the fight via unanimous decision. Alves landed powerful leg kicks and managed to drop Koscheck more than once during the fight before getting the decision. On December 10, 2008, Koscheck fought Yoshiyuki Yoshida in the main event at UFC: Fight for the Troops and won by KO in the first round by landing two devastating straight right punches to Yoshida's head. After this fight Koscheck fought debuting Paulo Thiago in at UFC 95; Koscheck was defeated by the debuting Brazilian via TKO. Koscheck was to fight Chris Wilson at UFC 98 but was forced to withdraw after suffering a foot injury in training. He returned at UFC 103 and defeated returning veteran Frank Trigg via TKO at 1:25 of the 1st round. Koscheck was then expected to face Mike Pierce on January 11, 2010, at UFC Fight Night 20, but instead went on to face Anthony Johnson on November 21, 2009, at UFC 106. On November 21, 2009, Koscheck defeated Anthony Johnson by rear naked choke at 4:47 in the 2nd round.

Paul Daley successfully made his debut in MMA in June 2003 against John Connelly, winning via TKO. Daley’s record was pretty inconsistent after this win, as he would go on spurts of winning streaks followed by losses. After fighting in various countries and building a solid 16-6-2 record, Paul fought Mark Weir at Cage Rage 23 for the Welterweight title and he earned the first major title of his career to date when he TKO’d Weir in the 2nd round. Daley won his next two fights in the 1st round before taking on Jake Shields at EliteXC: Heat. This fight was a big step up in competition for Daley and even though he had a significant advantage in the stand-up, when the fight hit the ground Shields was able to pull off the submission. Daley has gone 5-1 since his loss to Shields with his latest victory coming at UFC 108, where he defeated Dustin Hazelett via first round knockout.

With a potential title shot at stake for the winner of this fight, both guys should be extremely motivated to put on a good performance. Josh Koscheck has done a really good job of improving his stand-up over the last few years in order to become a more well-rounded mixed martial artist, he already has KO power in his hands & his technique seems to be improving all the time. Despite this I don’t think this will be a fight in which he will want to test his improved striking, Paul Daley is one of the best strikers in the welterweight division and he possesses devastating power in his strikes as well as world class technique. If Koscheck wants to continue his winning streak then I think it would be in his best interests to use his excellent wrestling to take ‘Semtex’ to the ground, where he should hold the advantage. Daley has been submitted in the past and Koscheck has the skills to end fights on the ground as he showed in his last fight against Anthony Johnson. Daley’s game plan should be pretty simple, keep Josh standing and then use his superior striking to test Kosckeck’s suspect chin. If Paul is able to land one of his shots then I don’t think Josh will be able to stand up to his power. I think the result of this fight will depend on what game plan ‘Kos’ decides to use, if he stands & trades with Daley then I see him getting KO’d, if he fights smart & takes it to the ground then I think he’ll either get the submission or decision victory. After the war of words between both fighters in recent weeks I have a feeling that Josh may feel he has something to prove and will be tempted to trade strikes with Daley, which I think will be his undoing in this fight.

My Prediction: Paul Daley via KO.




Lyoto 'The Dragon' Machida
Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua

In the main event of the evening Lyoto Machida will defend his Light Heavyweight belt in a rematch against fellow Brazilian Mauricio Rua. Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua started his career in 2003 at the Meca World Vale Tudo event in Brazil. On his debut, Rua fought Rafael Capoeira, knocking him out with a head kick in the first round. Rua went 4-0 before getting his first taste of defeat at the hands of Renato Sobral on September 6, 2003 by submission. Despite this loss Rua was immediately signed by Pride to fight at Bushido 1 against Akira Shoji winning via TKO in the first round after landing some vicious stomps, which is something that would later become on the things Shogun is best known for. Following his debut victory Shogun went on to win his next 3 Pride fights all in the 1st round before entering the Pride Middleweight Grand Prix tournament in 2005. His first opponent would be Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, whom he had challenged after Jackson won a controversial split decision over his brother, Murilo "Ninja" Rua, at Pride 29. Rampage was the heavy favourite going into the fight but Rua dominated the action from the beginning, breaking Rampage’s ribs in the process with knee strikes and ending the fight in dramatic fashion with soccer kicks to the face in the first round.

Rua's next fight in the tournament would be against the highly regarded Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, younger brother of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Once again labeled as the underdog, Rua was able to upset the odds and edge out a unanimous decision against Nogueira. On August 28, 2005, Shogun cemented his place in MMA history when he won the 2005 Grand Prix tournament by defeating Alistair Overeem and Ricardo Arona, both by TKO in the first round. Rua’s next fight was at PRIDE 31 as a Heavyweight against Mark Coleman. The fight was stopped when Rua dislocated his elbow following a takedown by Coleman in which he landed awkwardly. After suffering the 2nd loss of his career Shogun dropped back down to the light heavyweight division and put together a 4-0 win streak, it was around this time that the UFC bought out Pride and Shogun ended up signing a lucrative deal to come and fight in America with the UFC.

His UFC debut was against Forrest Griffin. Coming into the fight Shogun was widely considered as the best light heavyweight in the world and was a heavy favorite to win. After struggling to adjust to his new surroundings in the 1st round Rua became exhausted during the second round and was unable to keep pace against Griffin. With only 15 seconds remaining in the fight Griffin locked in a rear naked choke after Shogun repeatedly gave up his back and came away from the fight with a submission victory. In his 2nd and most recent UFC fight Shogun was given a rematch with Mark Coleman at UFC 93 in Dublin, Ireland. Shogun defeated Coleman via TKO with 24 seconds left in the 3rd round but looked unimpressive in victory after running out of gas in the 2nd round & failing to finish Coleman off after he himself had gassed out in the 1st round. After the Coleman bout, Shogun KO’d UFC legend Chuck Liddell in the 1st round as he showed glimpses of his former self. At UFC 104 Shogun lost a unanimous decision to UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida. All three judges scored the bout 48-47 in favor of Machida. However, controversy arose with the decision as many notable MMA personalities felt that Shogun had won the fight.

Lyoto Machida had his first MMA fight in May 2003, defeating Kengo Watanabe via unanimous decision at NJPW: Ultimate Crush. He fought fellow UFC competitor Stephan Bonnar in his second fight, defeating The Ultimate Fighter finalist via TKO due to a cut. In only his 3rd professional MMA fight, Lyoto took on the 12-0 UFC veteran Rich Franklin and defeated the future Middleweight champion in the 2nd rounds with strikes. Machida continued his undefeated streak, putting together an 8-0 professional record before getting a chance to showcase his skills at UFC 67 against Sam Hoger. Machida defeated Hoger via unanimous decision and won his next 2 UFC fights before facing the highly touted Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou at UFC 79; Sokoudjou was making his UFC debut and had gathered a lot of attention after stopping both Ricardo Arona & Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in PRIDE. It was during this fight that Lyoto earned the first stoppage of his UFC career, securing an arm triangle choke in the second round and submitting ‘The African Assassin.’

This win earned Machida a shot at Tito Ortiz at UFC 84; Machida frustrated Ortiz in the opening round by countering Ortiz’s strikes while defending the former champion's takedown attempts. In the final seconds of the third round, Machida landed a flying knee to the body of Ortiz and knocked him down. As Machida moved in to finish the fight, Ortiz almost locked in a triangle choke but Machida managed to escape and win a unanimous decision, with all three judges scoring the bout 30-27. Machida’s next fight took place at UFC 94 against fellow unbeaten Brazilian Thiago Silva; Machida controlled the first round scoring various takedowns & trips before managing to KO Thiago in the final second of the first round to earn himself a shot at Rashad’s title. Lyoto fought Rashad for the belt at UFC 98 and finished the former champ in emphatic fashion with a KO in the 2nd round. In his most recent fight, Machida defeated Shogun via controversial decision at UFC 104.

After the controversial decision after their first fight, both Shogun & Lyoto will want to set the record straight in this re-match. Shogun will look to prove that he deserved the decision, while Lyoto will be looking for a much more dominant performance in this fight. Leading upto the first fight, much had been said about Machida’s elusive style and how no-one had been able to figure it out. However after the first couple of rounds of his fight against Shogun, it appeared that maybe there was a blueprint to counter this style. Shogun used his muay thai kicks to weaken Machida’s base which meant that as the fight went on, Lyoto lost the explosiveness that he relies on to get in & out of range. Shogun also kept his defence high at all times and actually ended the fight taking less damage than Machida. No doubt though we’ll see something different from both fighters in this bout, as they will both look to improve on any weaknesses the other exposed. I can see Shogun being a bit more aggressive in this fight & maybe even going for the takedown, which will not be easy in the early rounds as Machida has excellent takedown defence. Machida will probably look to avoid the kicks this time around & likewise he might surprise everyone & take Shogun down. Just like the first fight this is a really tough one to call and the results will all come down to who is able to make the most effective adjustments to their game plans from the previous fight. I’m having a really tough time picking this fight so i’m just gonna flip a coin on this one & go for Shogun via decision.

My Prediction: Mauricio Shogun Rua via decision.