This fight could very well steal the show, both fighters are known for their explosive fighting styles and I for one will be extremely surprised if this one goes the distance. Guillard has looked like a new fighter since moving his training to Greg Jackson’s camp, he is now a lot more patient and sticks with the game plans that he & Jackson come up with. He has also worked hard to improve his submission defence which is one of the things that let him down a lot in past fights. With these improvements to go with his excellent wrestling & KO power, Guillard is a threat to anyone in the lightweight division. Stephens has a similar style to Guillard in that he also relies on his wrestling & big KO power as his main strengths; he is also coming into this fight off of an extremely impressive victory over Sam Stout so his confidence should be at an all time high coming into this fight. With both fighters preferring to strike, this should lead to a very exciting stand up battle between these two fighters. This is a difficult fight to call as I think if either guy connects cleanly then the other is going to sleep, however with the improvements that Guillard has made recently i’m going to have to go with a win for Melvin via TKO.My Prediction: Melvin Guillard via TKO.
Sean Sherk will be looking to make one more run at the lightweight title on Saturday as he looks to de-rail the up and coming Evan Dunham. Sherk hasn’t fought for over a year due to various injuries and the last time he was in the octagon, he suffered a loss to the current UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar. In the build-up to this fight Sherk has mentioned that he wants to get another shot at the lightweight title he once held, however he will need to make a big statement against Dunham if he wants to be considered up there with the top contenders of the division. Evan Dunham is currently undefeated in his professional MMA career with an 11-0 record, he also seems to be improving with every performance and if he keeps going at this rate then he will surely be in contention for a title shot sooner rather than later. Evan has a very well rounded style and is just as comfortable standing as he is grappling, if he is to win this fight however I think that his best opportunity will be to keep the fight standing where he will be able to put his reach advantage to good use. Sherk possesses some good boxing skills however we all know that his main strength is his wrestling, which he seems to have neglected in his recent fights as he has looked more to show off his stand-up skills. I think if Sherk wants to get back on the winning track then he needs to go back to basics and use his wrestling and ground & pound to control the fight. Of course this is all dependant on if Sherk is actually able to get Dunham down which is no certainty. I know Sherk is motivated for this fight; however I just think that Dunham is hungrier and more well-rounded so i’m going with Dunham via decision.My Prediction: Evan Dunham via decision.
Whenever Chris Lytle fights, there tends to be fireworks and i’m sure we’ll see the same thing on Saturday when he takes on Matt Serra in a re-match from the TUF 4 Finale. Lytle has been on a roll recently, winning 3 fights in a row and earning Fight of the Night as well as Submission of the Night in 2 of those 3 bouts. Serra is also coming off of an impressive performance, with a KO of the night against Frank Trigg. The first time these fighters met, Chris was winning the stand-up until Serra managed to get the clinch and take the fight to the ground where he had the advantage. This time around I expect Lytle to be more wary of getting caught in a grappling match, instead I think he’ll look to keep the distance and use his reach advantage aswell as his superior striking to pick Serra apart. Seeing as Serra’s tactics worked perfectly in the 1st fight he should be looking to employ a similar strategy in the re-match, if he is able to avoid getting into a striking battle & instead can close the distance then I think he’ll be able to get Lytle to the ground where he can then work for the submission. If Lytle sticks to a patient game plan then I think he can win this, but if he chooses to go with the more aggressive style he’s been using recently then I think he’ll be wide open to getting taken down which I feel will end up in the giving Serra a chance to get the decision win.My Prediction: Matt Serra via decision.
In the co-main event of the evening we will see 2 of the top light heavyweight contenders clash as Antonio Rogerio Nogueira looks to extend his 7 fight win streak & Ryan Bader will look to keep his perfect 11-0 record intact. Nogueira’s last performance wasn’t exactly the most convincing win of his career as Jason Brilz pushed him to his limit in their 3 round battle, this should lead to him training very hard to put on a show for everyone against Ryan Bader. Nogueira is one of the most well round fighters in the division, with world class BJJ and very good striking as well as a solid chin, all of these skills he will need to display against Bader if he wants to get a shot at that light heavyweight title. This is a big step up in competition for Bader and one that he will need to pass if he is to be considered among the best in the 205lbs weight class. Thus far in his career he has slowly been stepping up his level of completion and has passed each time, in his latest fight he showed that his KO power holds up even in the later stages of his fights as he stopped Keith Jardine in his tracks with a 3rd round KO. Bader’s main strengths are his wrestling and his power in his hands, both of which will be big advantages in this fight. His wrestling ability means that he should be able to control where this fight takes place and as long as he’s wary of Nogueira’s submission skills I think he stands a good chance at getting the victory in this fight if he takes Nogueira down and uses his ground & pound. Nogueira on the other hand will feel that he is the better technical striker and as such will want to keep the fight standing where he will then look to outpoint Bader. Like Bader needs to watch out for Nog’s submissions, Lil Nog will need to be careful of Bader’s power as he’s always going to be one shot away from ending this fight. This is a tough fight to predict and i’ve been going back & forth over it numerous times, however in the end I think that Bader’s wrestling will prove to be the difference in this fight and he will take a decision victory.My Prediction: Ryan Bader via decision.
In the main event of the evening Mirko Cro Cop will be looking to keep his comeback on track and extend Frank Mir’s losing streak as they clash in a heavyweight battle. Cro Cop has managed to put together a 2 fight win streak, with his most recent win coming against Pat Barry in a fight that many including myself thought that Barry would win. This perhaps shows that maybe Mirko isn’t quite ready to give up that one last shot at championship gold and with a win against Frank Mir, he will surely be in a good position to be considered as a contender for the championship. Mir on the other hand will want to show that he has what it takes to live up to the potential he showed earlier in his fight career. In his last fight Frank got stopped by the hard punching Shane Carwin, who has to be considered one of, if not the hardest hitters in the sport. Fortunately for Mir, Mirko doesn’t have that same type of punching power. However he will need to be careful of that famed high kick, even though Mirko doesn’t throw it as often as he used too, the threat is still there & if he catches Mir then it’ll be all over. Mir definitely holds the advantage in the ground on this fight however Cro Cop has outstanding takedown defence so i’m not sure how much of Mir’s gorund game we’ll get to see, this shouldn’t affect Frank too much though as his striking has improved considerably over the years. As evidenced in his fight against Cheick Kongo, where he got the first round KO, so if this fight turns into a striking battle I think Frank will be able to hold his own. As i’ve mentioned in previous predictions i’d love to see Mirko get that one last title run before he retires but I think that Frank has more tools to win this fight.My Prediction: Frank Mir via TKO.
