Brendan Schaub will look to continue his impressive recent form on Saturday when he takes on UFC veteran Gabriel Gonzaga. Schaub has been attempting to make his mark in the heavyweight division recently after coming up short on The Ultimate Fighter, where he lost in the finals to Roy Nelson. He has since gone on to score 2 successive TKO victories against Chase Gormley & Chris Tuchscherer respectively both in the very 1st round. Fighting out of Greg Jackson’s camp, Brendan seems to be improving rapidly and he will hope to keep this up against Gonzaga. The Brazilian has had a mixed run lately where he has struggled to put together a consistent string of wins, blessed with big power in his strikes and an excellent ground game Gonzaga has the tools to upset a lot of Heavyweights but as we’ve seen he also has his weaknesses and has been stopped a few times in his career. If Gonzaga wants to stay in the UFC he needs to win this fight & in style, if he loses then there is a real danger he will be cut. I think his best chance at winning is to get Brendan to the ground, if he stands with Schaub then there’s a big chance that Brendan will use his technically superior striking to land some big shots & put Gonzaga’s lights out. If however Gonzaga is able to get the takedown then he may be able to use his ground & pound to stop Schaub in his tracks. This fight could go either way but i’m going to go with Schaub via TKO.My Prediction: Brendan Schaub via TKO.
Matt Hamill will be taking on his former mentor in a light heavyweight bout that could potentially be one of the most important fights of Tito Ortiz’s career. Looking at Tito’s last 4 fights does not make for good reading for the former light heavyweight champion, he has lost 3 & drawn 1 with his last professional win coming way back in 2006. In the 4 years since he has had surgery on his back to correct the nagging injuries that he’s carried around with him over the last few years, however in his last fight which was the 1st he’s had since the surgery, he looked really rusty after all of his time away from the Octagon. Ortiz cannot afford to turn in another similar performance against Hamill or he could find himself losing another fight and being potentially cut from the UFC. Hamill can be a very dangerous opponent, his wrestling is excellent and he has some big power in his hands. His striking technique is also always improving so this will be a real test for Ortiz, I think Hamill will try to keep this fight standing as he is the bigger puncher in this fight and I feel he will be able to land the more damaging blows if they trade strikes. Tito will need to go back to basics and use his wrestling to get Hamill on his back where he can then work from inside the guard and throw those vicious elbows that became his trademark. This is of course easier said than done as Hamill is a very accomplished wrestler and Tito’s takedowns don’t seem to be as explosive as they used to be in his prime. This is a very difficult fight for me to predict as i’m a big fan of Tito so my opinion isn’t completely objective. I would love to see Tito return to his old winning ways but his last few performances haven’t exactly convinced me, despite this I still have a feeling he has the potential to win this fight so i’m going with Ortiz via decision.My Prediction: Tito Ortiz via decision.
Diego Sanchez and Paulo Thiago will both be looking to rebound from losses in their last fights when they collide in a welterweight bout. Sanchez’s return to the welterweight division was largely underwhelming at UFC 114 where he lost a unanimous decision to John Hathaway, Diego looked nothing like the fighter we’re used to seeing & ended up getting dominated over the course of the 3 rounds. Since that fight he’s gone back to train at Greg Jackson’s camp and says that he now feels like he’s in a much better place so i’m expecting a totally different Sanchez to show up in this fight. Known for his excellent grappling & submissions, Diego also has solid striking skills so he should be comfortable wherever the fight takes place. Paulo Thiago is also very well rounded with excellent submissions and good striking, so this could be a very even fight. I think the difference will be in the power that Paulo has, I think if he connects with Sanchez then he can end the fight whereas, it may take few shots from Diego to do the same to Thiago. Even though I think Sanchez will be alot more impressive than his last fight I think that this is a bad match-up for him and Paulo will come away with a TKO victory.My Prediction: Paulo Thiago via TKO.
Jake Shields will make his long awaited UFC debut in the co main event on Saturday when he takes on tough Danish fighter Martin Kampmann in a welterweight title contender match. Jake Shields has won titles in almost every organisation he’s ever fought in but there’s one title that’s missing & he badly wants to add it to his collection, that title is of course the UFC Welterweight championship. Shields is currently riding an incredible 14 fight win streak and if he defeats Kampmann then surely no-one can deny the fact that he is clearly deserving of a shot at the winner of Georges St-Pierre & Josh Koscheck. For those who haven’t seen Shields much, his main strengths are his wrestling and submissions, he does have some striking which he’s been working on but he mainly uses it as a way to set-up his takedowns. Over the past few years Shields has perfected his fighting style and I think we won’t see him switch things up too much in this fight. He will obviously be aware of the fact that Kampmann is an excellent striker and as a result he will not waste much time in looking for a way to take the fight down to the ground. Kampmann is a very good fighter & he does have a puncher’s chance in this fight but I think Shields wrestling is on a whole other level to the Dane’s and with the experience Jake has I don’t think he’ll take too many risks in the stand-up exchanges. I think Shields will get the takedown early on and then establish his dominance with his ground and pound, Kampmann won’t give up easily but I think this will continue to happen for 3 rounds as Shields lands a unanimous decision victory in his debut.
My Prediction: Jake Shields via decision.
In the main event of the evening Brock Lesnar will defend his heavyweight title against the unbeaten challenger Cain Velasquez. Velasquez has been very impressive since making his debut back at UFC 83, he has gone on to compile a 6-0 record in the UFC & 8-0 overall in his MMA career. The competition Cain has faced has slowly been increasing with every fight & every time he has passed with flying colours especially in his last fight at UFC 110 where he KO’d Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in the very 1st round, this time however he will face his biggest challenge yet . Brock Lesnar is a massive heavyweight with amazing agility, which makes him a very difficult opponent to prepare for. Cain will probably be the quicker and more well rounded of the 2 fighters but I think Lesnar’s power will be a big factor. I expect Cain to look to stick & move in this fight, using his fast combinations to land punches in bunches before moving out of range from Lesnar’s power strikes. I can see this tactic being successful in the early stages of the fight but as we’ve seen in Lesnar’s last fight he is capable of waiting for his opponent to show an opening & adapting his game. I think if the striking isn’t going his way then Brock will shoot in for a takedown and even though Cain is also an excellent wrestler I think Lesnar’s power and quickness will enable him to complete the takedown and from there he will look to land his heavy ground & pound. Cain has excellent cardio so I don’t think it would be wise for Lesnar to drag this fight out, if at all possible he is going to want to end this fight in the early rounds before he starts to tire. The longer the fight goes the more i’d favour Cain, but I think Lesnar will get a takedown in the late 1st/early 2nd round and that will be the beginning of the end for the challenger.
My Prediction: Brock Lesnar via TKO.
