This is a big fight for Alves, he’s currently on a 2 fight losing streak and didn’t look very impressive at all in his defeat to Jon Fitch at UFC 117, where he lost every round. There was a lot of focus on the fact that Thiago had an issue making the weight cut down to 170lbs, which is a problem he has suffered before, and this may have contributed to his flat performance. However it seems as though he’s learned from his mistakes and has hired someone to guide his cut for this fight against Howard. When Thiago is firing on all cylinders, he can be one of the most dangerous fighters in the division with his KO power and devastating leg kicks. He has also worked hard to improve his takedown defence but there is still a weakness here which as we’ve seen in his last 2 fights can be exposed by world class wrestlers. Luckily for Alves in this fight Howard’s wrestling isn’t on the same level as Fitch’s or GSP’s, in fact I think Howard may even prefer to stand and trade strikes himself in this fight. Howard does have the potential to upset Alves in this fight if he lands, however I think Alves is the better technical striker and with the size advantage he will have I can see him getting a TKO victory in this fight.My Prediction: Thiago Alves via TKO.
Joe Stevenson will be looking to get back into title contention in the lightweight division on Saturday when he takes on Mac Danzig. Both fighters will be coming into this bout off of losses, although Danzig’s was somewhat controversial as the referee called a premature stop to the bout when Matt Wiman locked in a guillotine choke even though Mac hadn’t appeared to tap. No doubt Mac will get a chance to avenge this down the line but for now he will have to focus his attentions on Joe Stevenson. Stevenson’s tactics in this bout will be pretty simple, he will look to use his stand-up to close the distance and then shoot for the takedown where he can then work hissuperior grappling and his ground & pound. He will need to be cautious early on however as Danzig has some dangerous submissions, with the experience that Joe possesses though he should be able to avoid any danger and impose his game. Danzig’s best chance at winning the fight is to keep it standing and try to out-strike Joe, which will be difficult to do as he will need to stuff Joe’s constant takedown attempts to do this. At the end of the night I think Stevenson’s wrestling will be the difference and he will get the decision.My Prediction: Joe Stevenson via decision.
I think this fight could very well steal the show, Jim Miller is currently riding a 5 fight win streak and is close to getting into contention for a shot at the title. Charles Oliveira on the other hand is undefeated in his professional career with 14 wins and no losses and is one of the most exciting prospects in the division. The Brazilian has a very well rounded game and is comfortable trading strikes or on the ground where he can be extremely dangerous off his back using a very active guard. With the height difference and the fact that Jim Miller tends to be at his best when he takes his opponents down & pounds them I think we’ll see Miller shoot for the takedown pretty early in this fight. If he tries to trade with Oliveira for too long then I think he’ll come off on the losing end of the battle, whereas on the ground he should be able to impose his will. The only thing he will need to be wary of though is the submissions that I mentioned that Charles constantly attempts, unlike most fighters who try to stall when they get taken down until the re-start, Charles is working to improve his position non-stop. This is a difficult step up in competition for Oliveira and it will go a long way to proving just how good he is but I think he has the talent to pull this off.My Prediction: Charles Oliveira via submission.
In the co-main event of the evening two massive heavyweights will collide when the 6’11 ‘Skyscraper’ Stefan Struve takes on the undefeated Sean McCorkle who stands just a few inches shorter than Struve at 6’7. McCorkle is 10-0 so far in his professional career and he made quick work of Mark Hunt in his debut at UFC 119, where he submitted the Pride veteran in just 67 seconds. Sean will no doubt want to build on this by taking out Struve in similar fashion and after all the trash talking between the two i’m sure he will be even more motivated to end this fight. With 24 fights to his credit Struve already has a lot more experience than a lot of fighters in his division and what’s even more amazing is the fact that he’s still only 22 years old, which leaves plenty of time for him to improve his skills & try to get to the top of the heavyweight division. There’s a long way to go for this to happen though, even though Struve won his last fight by KO in the 2nd round, he got dominated in the 1st by Christian Morecraft before finally landing a counter early in the 2nd to end the night. I’m expecting Struve to try and use his height advantage and striking in this fight, if he uses his full frame then he could very well end up out-striking McCorkle. Sean may find it difficult to find his range early on so I think he’ll wind up looking to take Stefan to the ground and work his ground & pound from there. This is a tough fight to call as Stefan is improving all the time but I have a gut feeling that McCorkle will pull away with the W in this fight.My Prediction: Sean McCorkle via TKO.
In the main event of the evening Josh Koscheck will get a chance at capturing the UFC Welterweight title when he takes on Georges St-Pierre in a re-match from UFC 74. Since that fight St-Pierre has gone from strength to strength, notching up 6 wins in a row over some world class fighters such as Jon Fitch, Matt Hughes, BJ Penn and the list goes on. GSP has constantly improved his skills in each of these fights and many now consider him to be one of, if not the best pound for pound fighter in MMA today. It’s hard to argue with that when you look at his record and his skill set, his professional record stands at 20 wins with 2 losses both of which he’s avenged, and he’s evolved from being primarily a stand-up fighter into one of the best wrestlers in the sport. This wrestling ability is actually what made a big difference in the first fight between GSP and Koscheck, the only weakness that we’ve seen from the champion is when he got rocked against Matt Serra. With the power that Koscheck has in his hands, he will surely gain confidence from the fact that GSP has been stopped by strikes however that loss was over 3 years ago and GSP has proved to be an evasive target for his opponents since then. Koscheck has had more of a difficult time since facing the Canadian in 2007, going 6-3 with in the ensuing fights. Josh has been desperately trying to get into GSP’s head in the build-up with his trash talking and thus far the champion has been resisting the urge to retaliate. It’ll be interesting to see whether any of this has had any effect at all, personally I think GSP will stick to his game plan and the trash talking will only serve to motivate him rather than anger him. Josh will need to use his wrestling ability if he wants to win this fight, but not in the conventional sense, he will need to use these skills in reverse so that he can force GSP to stand and trade with him. If he is able to do this then his chances of winning the fight are dramatically increased as he only needs to land that big right hand once for it to be all over. Even if GSP isn’t able to get the takedown though, this doesn’t mean that the fight is Josh’s to lose. Georges has a lot of unorthodox strikes that he uses very well such as his superman punch and spinning back kick so ‘Kos’ will need to be wary. There are also flaws in Josh’s techniques that can be exposed such as the fact that he has a tendency to jump in with punches from to time which leaves him open to the counter, in fact Thiago Alves landed a left hook in his fight against Josh by staying in range and then countering after Josh jumped in which lead to a knockdown. If Georges stays in the pocket and uses a similar technique to Alves then we could very well see a KO in favour of the champion. Even though these weaknesses are there to exploit I still think GSP will be focused mainly on getting the takedown and even though Koscheck has worked on his wrestling in preparation for this bout, something he admitted that he neglected in the first encounter, I think that he will have trouble stopping GSP’s shot. Taking everything into consideration at the end of the night I can see GSP taking a unanimous decision after grinding Josh down over the course of five rounds.My Prediction: GSP via decision.
