Thursday, 28 April 2011

UFC 129: ST-PIERRE VS. SHIELDS PREDICTIONS


Randy 'The Natural' Couture vs. Lyoto 'The Dragon' Machida

In what very well could be the final fight of his hall of fame career, MMA legend Randy ‘The Natural’ Couture will take on Lyoto Machida in a light heavyweight contest. Couture has been after this fight for a while and is very keen to see how his skills match up with Machida’s unorthodox style, so we should see a very motivated Couture on Saturday. Likewise Machida will also not be short on motivation, after putting together a perfect 16-0 record at the start of his career Machida now finds himself on a 2 fight losing streak after a TKO loss to Shogun Rua & a very controversial decision loss to Rampage at UFC 123. Machida now finds himself in a position where he needs a very convincing performance in order to get back into title contention. This should be a really interesting clash of styles, I expect Couture to look to close the distance early on and then get to work in the clinch which is where he is most effective at grinding his opponents down. Lyoto on the other hand, will look to use his superior striking and timing to out-strike Couture when he looks to close the gap. Lyoto also has underrated grappling so it may not be as easy to get him down or control him in the early stages of the fight. No doubt Randy will be well prepared for this fight, however I think that Machida’s style will be a bad match-up for ‘The Natural’ and I think he’ll come away the decision in this fight.

My Prediction: Lyoto Machida via decision.


Jose Aldo vs. Mark 'The Machine' Hominick

In the co-main event of the evening Jose Aldo will make the first defence of the newly created UFC featherweight title against the Canadian challenger Mark Hominick. Hominick has been putting on some very impressive performances recently and the striking clinic he showed to defeat George Roop at UFC: Fight For The Troops 2 has definitely got a lot more fans interested in this title bout. With Shawn Tompkins in his corner, Mark’s striking has been getting better and better however it will really be put to the test on Saturday as Aldo is considered by many to be one of, if not the best pound-for-pound fighters in MMA today. Aldo not only has the power and speed in his punches to stop his opponents, he also possesses some of the most vicious kicks of any fighter in any weight class as well as excellent submission skills. With both fighters preferring the stand-up game I think there’s a very good chance we’ll see a lot of fireworks in this bout. I think Hominick will surprise a lot of people early on and make it competitive however, mid-way through the fight I think Aldo’s power will take over and he will get the TKO victory.

My Prediction: Jose Aldo via TKO.


Georges 'Rush' St-Pierre vs. Jake Shields

In the main event of the evening Welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre will defend his title for the 6th time against Jake Shields. Even though this is only Shields’ 2nd appearance in the UFC, he has more than paid his dues to get a shot at the title, not only was he the Welterweight & Middleweight champion of Strikeforce, Shields is also currently riding a 15 fight win streak and hasn’t lost a fight since 2004. Shields is also part of one of the best fight teams in MMA at the moment, Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, which is also home to Nick & Nate Diaz as well as Gilbert Melendez. Jake’s main strength is obviously his grappling and ground skills, which have won him the majority of his fights, and GSP is well aware of just how dangerous Jake can be when he gets the fight to the ground as evidenced by how hard he’s been working on his ground game in the Primetime special. Shields has improved his stand-up considerably over the last few years, however it is still no-where near his ability on the ground, so if he is to win this fight he is going to have to find a way of getting GSP down. If this happens then I think the chance of an upset happening will increase dramatically. The problem however is that GSP is incredibly well rounded and in addition to being difficult to takedown, he also has incredible stand-up skills. After seeing how hard GSP has been training for this fight and seeing how dominant he has been of late, it’s difficult for me to see Shields getting a result from this fight. Georges is so focused on becoming one of the greatest MMA fighters of all time that he is training like a man possessed and with all the physical advantages he has I think that he will stop Shields in the late rounds.

My Prediction: Georges St-Pierre via TKO.